Elevated Rainfall Forecast for EAC with Above-Normal Temperatures in Greater Horn of Africa (GHA)

  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over most parts of Burundi, Tanzania, and a few regions in southern and northern Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in central to southern and eastern Ethiopia, northern and southern Somalia, eastern to central Kenya, central to southern Uganda, and parts of central and western Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions are expected over Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, central to northern Uganda, north-western Kenya, and western and eastern Ethiopia.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Exceptional Rainfall 

  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall (90th to 95th percentiles) is expected over part of northern Somalia into south-eastern Ethiopia, northern and southern Kenya, and eastern to southern Tanzania.

Rainfall Anomalies 

  • Wetter than usual conditions are expected in northern Somalia, central to southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, eastern and north-western Tanzania, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
  • Drier than usual conditions are expected in central to western Tanzania.

Floods update 

  • High-risk flash floods and flooding are anticipated over southeastern and north-eastern Tanzania and northern and southern Kenya as a result of the heavy to very heavy rainfall, likely to worsen the flooding situation in the flood-prone areas.

Temperature 16 – 23 January 2024 

  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Somalia, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, and parts of southern and eastern Sudan.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over parts of central to northern Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, and most parts of western Rwanda and Burundi.

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa with isolated regions of cooler than average temperatures in parts of central Sudan and other isolated regions across the GHA.

Heat stress

  • Elevated levels of heat stress are expected in eastern Tanzania, eastern and coastal Kenya, southern Somalia and eastern regions of South Sudan.

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