The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) recently disseminated a seasonal forecast spanning January to March 2024, revealing an increase in rainfall amounts, encompassing the eight IGAD countries alongside Rwanda and Burundi.
According to the forecast, heightened precipitation is anticipated in the southern and equatorial sectors of the region, notably affecting Tanzania, Burundi, Kenya, southern Uganda, and segments of Ethiopia. Conversely, normal to arid conditions are foreseen in central Kenya, northern and western Tanzania, with the remaining regions generally experiencing dry conditions.
Furthermore, the temperature forecast indicates warmer-than-usual conditions across most sectors of the region accompanied by high rainfall. This is evidenced by the high rainfall in regions across the country and East Africa with Budalangi in the western region facing floods that have caused disruptions in the livelihoods of the communities.
In an official statement released on Friday, the Kenya National Highways Authority (KENHA) announced the closure of the North Horr – Kalacha (B75) Road due to flooding instigated by heavy rainfall in Marsabit County and the Ethiopian Highlands.
Motorists and other commuters were duly advised to exercise patience until the abatement of the rainfall. ICPAC’s forecast cautioned that the inclement weather may exacerbate flooding in select areas of Kenya, southern and northern Ethiopia, as well as northern Tanzania.
Subsequently, the Kenya Meteorological Department corroborated the occurrence of heavy rains, projected to persist until April 9. A substantial portion of Kenya is anticipated to be inundated by heavy rainfall over the impending weekend, stretching from Turkana to the Tanzanian border. The ongoing deluge has already precipitated flooding in numerous regions of the country, impacting approximately 15,264 households and resulting in at least 15 fatalities.
Dr. David Gikungu, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, elucidated, “Rainfall is anticipated across the majority of the country. Heavy rainfall events are likely to manifest in various sectors, including the highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the southeastern lowlands, the Coast, north-western, and north-eastern Kenya.”
Despite the persistent downpour, temperatures are projected to decrease, albeit remaining above the regional average for this month. Cooler temperatures than usual are forecasted for central to eastern regions of South Sudan, isolated areas within Kenya, northern Uganda, and Central Ethiopia.
The inundations and resultant flooding have necessitated the closure of roads, disrupting traffic flow and causing inconvenience to motorists and other commuters. However, the ongoing routine maintenance and spot improvement contract sanctioned by KENHA is poised to facilitate the rehabilitation of affected roads once conditions permit safe travel
