• Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) is expected from central to western Ethiopia. 
• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over parts of central to western South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and southern to southwestern Sudan amongst other Greater Horn of Africa (GHA)regions.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in central Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern and eastern Uganda, parts of western and eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, part of eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and western Eritrea. 

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

• More than usual rainfall is expected over parts of southern and south-western Sudan, western Ethiopia, and western South Sudan.  
• Less than usual rainfall is expected over central to eastern Sudan, central to eastern South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, parts of central to western Kenya, central Ethiopia, and western Eritrea. 

Exceptional Rainfall 

• Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record are expected over central to western Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan, and parts of southern and south-western Sudan. 

Floods 26 June – 03 July 2024

• The expected heavy rainfall over parts of central to western-Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan, and parts of southern and south-western Sudan is likely to lead to flooding in these areas.
• Communities in the areas at risk are advised to exercise caution during this period.

Temperature 26 June – 03  July 2024 

• High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over most parts of central to northern Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of northern coastal Somalia.  
• Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over South Sudan, Somalia, southern Sudan, most parts of Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, and eastern and north-western Tanzania. 
• Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over Rwanda, Burundi, south-western Uganda, parts of central to southern Tanzania, central to south-western Kenya and central to southern Ethiopia.  

Temperature anomalies

• Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the GHA.

Heat stress

• Elevated levels of heat stress is expected in central to northern Sudan, parts of Eritrea, Djibouti, and north-western Somalia. 

Heavy rainfall is expected in parts of western Ethiopia, western South Sudan, and southern Sudan, and the wider Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across the region, with elevated heat stress in north-eastern Ethiopia, coastal Eritrea, and central Sudan.