During the 67th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF67) held as a hybrid event on May 21, 2024, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) announced that above-normal rainfall is expected.
The forecast indicates that Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan will experience above-normal rainfall. In contrast, northern Somalia, isolated areas in western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions.
Additionally, an early to normal onset of rainfall is expected in central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. However, Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan may experience a delayed onset.
The forum, organized in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other partners, issued the seasonal forecast for June to September 2024. This forecast suggests an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
The forecasted climate patterns for the JJAS 2024 period resemble those of 1998 and 2010, which also experienced wetter-than-normal conditions. JJAS refers to the mean rainfall over the region from various historical models.
Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director, noted that the wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 mirror those of 1998 and 2010, with significant impacts expected, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience flooding.
“The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, posing significant challenges to community resilience,” said Dr. Guleid.
The temperature forecast indicates a probability of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, especially in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
These early warning systems play a crucial role in ensuring that citizens are aware of upcoming weather patterns and are well-prepared. ICPAC has adopted an objective seasonal forecast method to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa.
Dr. Artan emphasized the importance of early warning systems, highlighting their role in preparedness and guiding responses to climate variability. He stressed the importance of ICPAC’s operations in providing actionable climate information crucial for early action.
