Moderate rainfall is expected in the southern regions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), with heavy rainfall in central Tanzania based on the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC) rainfall forecast. Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in most parts of the region.
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) is expected in parts of central Tanzania.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, and south-western Kenya.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in parts of coastal Sudan, southwestern South Sudan, central to southern Uganda, south-eastern Kenya, southwestern Ethiopia, and southern Somalia.
- Dry conditions are expected over Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and most parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, central to northern Kenya, and northern Uganda.
Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.
Rainfall Anomalies
- Wetter-than-usual conditions are expected over western regions of Rwanda and Burundi, south-western Kenya, and central regions of Tanzania
- Drier than usual conditions are expected over eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, south-eastern, and south-western Tanzania.
Exceptional rainfall
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast in southwestern Kenya, northern and central Tanzania, and western regions of Burundi.
Flood update
- Heavy rainfall is anticipated in southwestern Kenya, northern and central Tanzania, and western regions of Burundi as predicted by the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC) rainfall forecast. Moderate rainfall is expected in the southern regions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Mean Temperature
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over most parts of southern to northeastern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, northern and eastern Kenya, Tanzania, Djibouti, and most parts of Somalia.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over parts of north-western Sudan, northern to central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and western regions of Rwanda and Burundi.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted for most parts of the region.
- Cooler than usual temperatures are expected over a few regions in eastern South Sudan into southwestern Ethiopia, cross-border regions of southern Somalia and south-eastern Ethiopia, and other isolated regions across the GHA.
Heat stress
- Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in coastal regions of Tanzania, Kenya, and southern Somalia, as well as regions of eastern South Sudan and south-eastern Sudan.
