Rainfall, Temperature Forecast 08-15 Nov 2023 

Very heavy to weighty rainfall is expected in parts of northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, parts of Burundi and Rwanda, and northern Tanzania. This is likely to exacerbate the current flooding conditions occurring across the region. National governments and humanitarian organizations are encouraged to enhance preparedness and emergency response. 

Rainfall Anomalies 

  • Wetter than usual conditions are expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, and parts of southern Sudan, southern Ethiopia, northern Tanzania, and central to southern Somalia. As rainfall levels increase with the current end year season.
  • Drier than usual conditions are expected over southern Tanzania and the north-eastern tip of Somalia.

Exceptional rainfall

  • Hefty rainfall is expected over a few places in central and northern Kenya and isolated areas in southern Somalia.
  • Heavy to weighty rainfall is expected in most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, south-eastern South Sudan, and central and southern Uganda.

Flood update 


Mean Temperature

  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, parts of eastern and northern Kenya, and south-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda, and Burundi, and isolated areas in Tanzania and Sudan.

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures predicted in most parts of the region
  • Cooler than usual temperatures are forecast over parts of north-eastern Kenya, south-eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia, and other isolated areas across the region.

Heat stress

  • Elevated levels of heat stress are expected over parts of central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and most coastal regions.

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