Rainfall, Temperature Forecast 14-21 Nov 2023 

Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is expected to continue in northern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and central Uganda.

Hazards such as landslides, riverine, and flash floods are likely to occur in these areas. National governments and humanitarian organizations are encouraged to enhance preparedness and emergency response.  

Total rainfall 

  • Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) is expected over north-western Tanzania, central and north-western Uganda,  and north-eastern Kenya into south-western Somalia.
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, north-western and south-eastern Tanzania, central to southern and north-western Somalia into coastal Djibouti, southern Ethiopia, southern South Sudan, and most parts of Kenya.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in central to northern South Sudan, coastal regions of Sudan and Eritrea, Djibouti,  central to northern Ethiopia,  parts of northern Somalia, north-western Kenya, and central Tanzania.
  • Dry conditions are expected over most parts of Sudan and southern and north-western regions of Eritrea.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

  • Wetter than usual conditions are expected over Uganda, central to northern Kenya, Somalia, much of Ethiopia,  central to southern South Sudan, and north-western and south-eastern Tanzania.
  • Drier than usual conditions expected over central to northern Tanzania, and southern parts of Kenya.

Exceptional rainfall

  • Extremely heavy rainfall is expected over cross-border regions of north-eastern Kenya to south-western Somalia and south-eastern South Sudan to south-western Ethiopia and central Uganda.
  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in most parts of central to northern Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, coastal Djibouti, much of Uganda,  and north-western and north-eastern Tanzania.

Flood update 

  • Isolated floods were observed last week in northeastern Kenya and southern Somalia from high rainfall.
  • Central, eastern, and southern parts of the regions consistently received heavy rainfall in the last few weeks resulting in an above-normal rainfall average.
  • The predicted heavy rainfall in northern Kenya, southern and eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, Djibouti, central to north-western Uganda, and north-western Tanzania increase the likelihood of isolated flash flood events in flood-prone areas, with a high risk anticipated over northern Kenya, south-western Ethiopia, and south-eastern Somalia.

Mean Temperature

  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, parts of eastern and northern Kenya, south-eastern and north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of southern and eastern Sudan.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, north-western Sudan, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda and Burundi, and isolated areas in Tanzania.

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
  • Cooler than usual temperatures are forecast over parts of central Sudan, south-eastern South Sudan, northern Kenya, and a few regions in southwestern Ethiopia.

Heat stress

  • Elevated levels of heat stress are expected over parts of central to southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and most coastal regions.

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