Total rainfall Heavy rainfall (greater than 200mm) is expected over isolated parts in central and north-western Ethiopia, northern and central South Sudan, and south-western Sudan.

Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over southern and eastern Sudan, much of South Sudan, western Eritrea, northern to central Ethiopia, northern Uganda, and isolated areas in western Kenya.

Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected over central and western Sudan, south-eastern South Sudan, parts of central to eastern Ethiopia, parts of coastal Eritrea, northern and southern Somalia, Djibouti, eastern and southern Tanzania, coastal and western Kenya, and central to south-western Uganda.

Dry conditions are expected over northern Sudan, central Somalia, much of Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and most parts of Tanzania.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies Wetter than usual conditions are expected over western and northern parts of Ethiopia, western Eritrea, much of South Sudan, eastern and southern parts of Sudan, northern Uganda, and western Kenya.

Drier than usual conditions are expected over western to central Sudan, north-western South Sudan, isolated areas in western and central Ethiopia, and the northern shores of Lake Victoria.

Exceptional rainfallExtremely heavy rainfall is expected in isolated areas of the Afar region of Ethiopia, and isolated areas in southern and eastern Sudan

Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10%-5%) is expected in much of central to northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, much of southern Sudan, and much of South Sudan except for western and southeastern parts.

Temperature 25 July – 01 August 2023Mean Temperature

Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) are expected over central to northern Sudan, the Afar region in Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal regions of Eritrea, and north-western coastal parts of Somalia.

Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over South Sudan, central to southern Sudan, eastern and northern Kenya, north-western and eastern Tanzania, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, and much of Uganda.

Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over central Ethiopia, isolated areas in southern Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, parts of southern, western, central to northern Tanzania, and central to southwestern Kenya.

Temperature anomaliesWarmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

Cooler than usual temperatures are expected in isolated areas in northern Somalia, central Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, and central Kenya.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in much of northern and north-eastern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, much of eastern and south-western Sudan, and parts of central South Sudan. Flooding is likely to occur in flood-prone areas.  

The rainfall and temperature forecasts are developed by ICPAC which is accredited by the World Meteorological Organization that provides Climate Services to 11 East African Countries. offering mainly services of creating resilience in a region deeply affected by climate change and extreme weather.