Anticipated Above-Average Rainfall Forecasted for Rwanda, Burundi, Northern and Eastern Tanzania, Accompanied by Warmer Temperatures Across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA)

• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania, as well as a few regions in south-western Kenya and southern Uganda.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in southern Uganda, southwestern Tanzania, western and southern Kenya, and coastal regions of Sudan, Eritrea, and northern Somalia.
• Dry conditions are expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, and central to southern Somalia.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Exceptional Rainfall 

• Heavy to very heavy (90th to 95th percentile) is expected over northern Burundi, and a few regions across northern and eastern Tanzania.

Rainfall Anomalies 

• Wetter than usual conditions are expected in Rwanda, Burundi, northern and eastern Tanzania, and the south-western regions of Kenya based on anticipated rainfall.
• Drier than usual conditions are expected in central to western Tanzania.

Floods update 

• High-risk flash floods are anticipated over eastern Burundi and a few regions across northern and eastern Tanzania as a result of the heavy to very heavy rainfall in the flood-prone areas.

Temperature 09 – 16 January 2024 

• Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Somalia, Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, and parts of southern and eastern Sudan.
• Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over parts of central to northern Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi.

Temperature anomalies

• Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), with isolated regions experiencing cooler-than-average temperatures.

Heat stress

• Elevated levels of heat stress are likely in eastern Tanzania, eastern and coastal Kenya, parts of southern Somalia, and eastern regions of South Sudan despite the high rainfall anticipated.