Based on weather predictions by the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC) Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) is expected over a few areas in southern Tanzania and south-western parts of Kenya. 

• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda,  Kenya, southern Somalia and south-western Ethiopia.  
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in northern, central to southern Ethiopia, central to eastern South Sudan, north-western Kenya, and parts of northern and central Somalia. 
• Dry conditions are expected over Sudan, Djibouti, and parts of northern western and northern South Sudan, central to northern Somalia, and eastern and western Eritrea. 

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

• Wetter than usual conditions are expected over most parts of the equatorial and southern regions.
• Drier than usual conditions are expected over southwestern parts of South Sudan and isolated areas in south-eastern Ethiopia and central Somalia.

Exceptional Rainfall 

• Very Heavy rainfall (reaching the top 5% on record) is expected in most parts of southern, central, and north-eastern Kenya, northern Tanzania, and cross-border regions of Kenya-South Sudan and Ethiopia.  
• Heavy rainfall (reaching top 10% on record) expected over most parts of Kenya, eastern and western parts of Tanzania, and parts of southern Somalia.  

Floods 

Very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood-prone areas.

Temperature 09 – 16 April 2024 

• The weather is expected to have High temperatures (above 32℃) are expected over isolated areas in cross-border regions of Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. 
• Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over most parts of the GHA.
• Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of northern to central Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi and a few areas in southern Tanzania. 

Temperature anomalies

• Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, southern and western Kenya, western Uganda, and western South Sudan. 
• Cooler than usual temperatures are forecast over central to northern Sudan, south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern Kenya, and other isolated areas across the GHA.  

Heat stress

• Elevated levels of heat stress are expected in southern parts of Somalia and south-eastern Kenya, the Afar region in Ethiopia, and northern parts of South Sudan.