Above-Average Rainfall and Warmer Temperatures Forecast for Greater Horn of Africa

Above-average rainfall (greater than 200mm) is expected over isolated areas in central and western Ethiopia.
Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, part of western Kenya, western and northern South Sudan, western to south-eastern Ethiopia, and northern Somalia.
Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected over parts of southern Sudan, parts of central to northern Ethiopia, central to southern Eritrea, most parts of Somalia, north-western Tanzania, coastal Kenya, and south-eastern parts of South Sudan.
Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.

Rainfall Anomalies
More than usual rainfall expected over parts of southern Sudan, western to south-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to northern Uganda, and northern Rwanda.
Less than usual rainfall expected over central to eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, most parts of Tanzania, Burundi and south-eastern parts of South Sudan.

Above-average rainfall

Exceptional Rain
Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record are expected over parts of northern Somalia, south-eastern and western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in southern and northern Uganda.

Flood 23 – 30 October 2024
The expected very heavy rainfall over a few places in parts of northern Somalia, south-eastern and western Ethiopia, and isolated areas in southern and northern Uganda is likely to lead to isolated flood incidences.
Communities in high-risk areas are advised to exercise caution during this period.

Temperature 23 – 30 October 2024
Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, eastern Burundi, eastern Rwanda, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and eastern and southern Ethiopia.
Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over parts of northern to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, western Rwanda, and southern parts of Tanzania.

Temperature anomalies

Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region.
Cooler than usual temperatures are expected over northern parts of Sudan.

Heat stress
Heat exhaustion is likely to be experienced over parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Afar region in Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya.

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