Communities in parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are being urged to prepare for significant weather changes as forecasts predict heavy rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures in various regions.

The affected countries include Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, and parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti. Early preparedness is critical as there are heightened risks of flooding from heavy rainfall, increased heat stress, and potential disruptions to daily life.

Rainfall Forecast

• Heavy Rainfall: Regions expected to receive over 200mm of rainfall include northern and western Tanzania, central to southern Kenya, and most parts of Burundi.
• Moderate Rainfall (50-200mm): This will affect most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, and central to western Kenya.
• Light Rainfall (less than 50mm): Expected in parts of eastern and northern Kenya, eastern and southern Uganda, south-western Ethiopia, southern Tanzania, and some areas along the Red Sea coast.

Rainfall Anomalies

• Above-Average Rainfall: Most of Rwanda, Burundi, central to northern Tanzania, and central to western Kenya are expected to receive higher-than-usual rainfall.
• Below-Average Rainfall: Some areas in southern and western Tanzania may experience less rainfall than normal.

Exceptional Rainfall

Certain areas are forecast to experience rainfall that exceeds the top 10% of historical records. These areas include central to southern Kenya, northern Tanzania, eastern Burundi, and southern Rwanda.

Flood Risk

The heavy rainfall anticipated in central to southern Kenya, northern Tanzania, eastern Burundi, and southern Rwanda could result in isolated flooding incidents. Residents in high-risk flood-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures, stay informed, and follow guidance from local authorities.

Temperature 18 – 25 December 2024 

• Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, southern Sudan, and southern and north-eastern regions of Ethiopia.  
• Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of northern Sudan, central Ethiopia, western Kenya, and northern Somalia.  

Temperature anomalies

• Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
• Cooler than usual temperatures are expected over parts of northern Sudan, eastern Kenya, and north-eastern Tanzania.

Heat Stress Advisory

Communities in coastal areas of Tanzania, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern South Sudan are warned of potential heat stress. Authorities urge residents to stay hydrated, limit exposure to extreme heat, and take necessary precautions to avoid health risks associated with high temperatures.

The weather changes predicted for December 18-25, 2024, may pose significant challenges for communities in the Greater Horn of Africa. Early preparedness is critical as there are heightened risks of flooding from heavy rainfall, increased heat stress, and potential disruptions to daily life.

Residents are encouraged to stay alert to weather advisories and heed the guidance of local authorities to ensure their safety and well-being.