Heavy rainfall is expected in south-eastern Ethiopia and parts of central to northern Somalia and temperature changes are anticipated. This may lead to flooding in areas that are susceptible to such occurrences. Warmer than average temperature is expected across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

Total rainfall 

• Heavy Rainfall (more than 200mm) is expected in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia and isolated areas in northern Somalia.
• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, most parts of South Sudan, Somalia,  parts of north-western Tanzania, central to southern Ethiopia, and western Kenya.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in southern Sudan, Eritrea, parts of South Sudan, central Ethiopia, eastern and northern Tanzania, and most parts of eastern, southern, and northern Kenya.
• Dry conditions are expected over central to northern Sudan, Djibouti, and parts of northern Ethiopia, north-western Kenya, and central to southern Tanzania.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

• Wetter than usual conditions are expected over southern Ethiopia, northern and south-eastern South Sudan, most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, and most parts of Somalia.
• Drier than usual conditions are expected over a few regions in central to south-western South Sudan, western Uganda, western Kenya, and northern Ethiopia.

Exceptional rainfall

• Hefty rainfall is expected in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
• Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia into central to northern Somalia, parts of Uganda, Rwanda, and isolated areas in Kenya.

Flood Update

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia into central to northern Somalia. This may increase the likelihood of isolated flash flood events in flood-prone areas with high risk anticipated over south-eastern Ethiopia, central to northern and southern Somalia where temperature changes are also anticipated.

Mean Temperature

• Hot temperature (above 32 ℃) is expected over isolated regions in the Afar region of Ethiopia and a few areas in eastern Sudan.
• Moderate to high temperature (20-32℃) is expected over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and northern and eastern Kenya.
• Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and other isolated regions in Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania.

Temperature anomalies

• Warmer than usual Temperature is predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA)

Heat stress

• Elevated levels of heat stress are expected in South Sudan, Sudan, coastal Eritrea, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia as Temperature soars.

Temperature, and rainfall forecast of dates 10 to 17 October as predicted by IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC). The predictions are rolled out on a weekly basis with a focus on the Greater Horn of Africa. These predictions of rainfall and temperature are important in enhancing preparedness.