UN Report Warns: 1.5°C Overshoot Now Inevitable Without Urgent Action

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

A UN Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment of available new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement finds that the predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century has only slightly fallen, leaving the world heading for a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.

According to the UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global warming projections over this century are now 2.3-2.5°C, compared to 2.6-2.8°C in last year’s report.

However, under a third of Parties to the Paris Agreement submitted new NDCs by 30 September 2025. Additionally, implementing only current policies would result in up to 2.8°C of warming, compared to 3.1°C last year.

The report further shows that the multi-decadal average of global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily. Moreover, this won’t be easy to reverse, requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his message on the report.

“But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”

Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP, said, Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target, but added that proven solutions already exist.

“From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action,” she emphasized.

The 2025 Emissions Gap Report is a stark reminder that incremental change is no longer enough, and only collective, accelerated action can keep the 1.5°C target alive, and with it, the promise of a livable planet.