Heavy Rainfall, Warmer Temperature Anticipated

Heavy to weighty rainfall is expected in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia extending into parts of central Somalia, and northern and southern parts of Uganda.  This may lead to flooding in low-lying areas.  Additionally, warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). 

Total rainfall 

  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over Burundi, Rwanda, north-western Tanzania, Uganda, western and northeastern Kenya, South Sudan, central and southern Somalia, and parts of western and southern Ethiopia.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in southern and north-eastern Sudan, Eritrea, northwestern and parts of central Ethiopia, northern Somalia, eastern Tanzania, and most parts of eastern, southern, and northern Kenya.
  • Dry conditions are expected over central to northern Sudan, Djibouti, northeastern to eastern Ethiopia, north-western and eastern Kenya, and central to southern Tanzania.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall equals 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

  • Wetter than usual conditions are expected over southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, parts of Rwanda and Burundi, western Tanzania, part of western and northern eastern Kenya, and central Somalia.
  • Drier than usual conditions are expected over a few regions in central Ethiopia, northwestern and southern Somalia, most parts of Kenya, and northern to eastern Tanzania.

Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy to weighty rainfall is expected in parts of western and south-eastern Ethiopia extending into parts of central Somalia, northern and southern parts of Uganda, and isolated areas in northern Kenya and South Sudan.
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Exceptional rainfall

  • Heavy to hefty rainfall is expected in parts of western and south-eastern Ethiopia extending into parts of central Somalia, northern and southern parts of Uganda, and isolated areas in northern Kenya and South Sudan.
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Flood Update

Heavy to weighty rainfall is expected in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia extending into parts of central Somalia, northern and southern parts of Uganda, and isolated areas in northern Kenya, western Ethiopia, and South Sudan. This may increase the likelihood of isolated flash flood events in flood-prone areas with high risk anticipated over south-eastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia. 

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Mean Temperature

  • Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) are expected over isolated regions in the Afar region of Ethiopia.
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over most parts of Tanzania, eastern Burundi and Rwanda, Uganda, most parts of Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, south-eastern and parts of northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over parts of northern, central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and other isolated regions in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

Heat stress

  • Heat exhaustion is forecast over parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern parts of Tanzania. Individuals are encouraged to stay hydrated during this time. 

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