The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is projected to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures and varying rainfall patterns over the coming period.
Notably, the region is expected to record significant temperature anomalies, particularly in Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, where temperatures could exceed the average by more than 2 degrees Celsius.
This warming trend will be widespread across the region, signaling a period of elevated heat stress, particularly in arid and semi-arid zones.
High temperatures exceeding 32°C are anticipated in most parts of Sudan, western Eritrea, and northeastern Ethiopia. Moderate to high temperatures, ranging between 20°C and 32°C, are expected to dominate across South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.
However, relatively cooler conditions, with temperatures below 20°C, will be experienced in elevated areas such as Rwanda, Burundi, southwestern Uganda, central and southwestern Tanzania, central to western Kenya, and the Ethiopian highlands.
In terms of precipitation, rainfall is expected to be below average across most of the GHA. However, exceptions include Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern Tanzania, where more than average rainfall is forecast.
Moderate rainfall, ranging between 50 mm and 200 mm, is likely over most of Rwanda and Burundi, the central and western parts of South Sudan, central Kenya, parts of central Somalia, western Ethiopia, and eastern regions of Tanzania.
Conversely, light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over most areas in Uganda, eastern and western Kenya, southern and central Somalia, southern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and southern South Sudan.
Several areas, including central Somalia, central Kenya, and eastern Tanzania, are expected to experience rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile, which places them among the wettest on record for this period.
Meanwhile, reduced rainfall is anticipated over much of Uganda, southeastern South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and large parts of Somalia.
Combined with elevated temperatures, these conditions may contribute to heightened heat stress, particularly in South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern Kenya, Somalia, and the Afar region in Ethiopia.
Overall, the region faces a complex climate outlook, with increased risks of heat-related stress and potential impacts on water availability, agriculture, and public health.
