Research published on Climate Change Impacts in Kenya; What a Climate Change Means for A Country and Its People, by the Kenya Meteorological Department indicates that agriculture and food security in Kenya are endangered as a result of the impacts of climate change.
Kenyan food is mainly traditional and domestically grown, supplemented by imports for items that cannot be produced internally in sufficiently large quantities, such as wheat and rice. Agriculture employs over 40% of the active workforce with more than 70% in rural areas, and directly contributes about 20% of Kenya’s GDP. Of this, 6 million tons of food crops are produced annually, and 4.2 million tons of horticultural crops are primarily for the domestic market, exporting 5% which is the second highest earner of foreign exchange after tourism. Moreover, Kenya produces 500,000 tons of industrial products. Livestock contributes at least 50% of the agricultural GDP.
The agricultural sector depends largely on rainfall during the two main wet seasons, making it vulnerable to altered weather patterns. In 2022, a prolonged drought that had been gripping the Horn of Africa region triggered a countrywide fall in maize production of 6.5% and a 3.3% drop in the volume of horticultural exports. The quantity of marketed milk also decreased by 5.9%, largely due to the scarcity of fodder for livestock.
Due to climate change, the research shows that the biggest impacts are expected on maize and wheat production owing to their high vulnerability to heat stress as well as other agricultural food crops. Under a very high emissions scenario, wheat yields in Africa are projected to decline by 15% by 2050, a much greater loss than the 1.9% reduction projected globally by mid-century. Additionally, despite ambitious actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the area of farmland optimal for tea production in Kenya is projected to decrease by 26% by 2050.
Moreover, heavy rainfall has led to increased flows on large rivers, such as the Tana, resulting in flooded farmlands, degraded soils, and reduced farm inputs. Additionally, climate-induced locust outbreaks devouring agricultural crops has become a particular problem in East Africa. Along Kenya’s coast, sea level rise, coral bleaching, and mangrove degradation associated with a very high emissions scenario could decrease Kenya’s fisheries catch by an estimated 63-76% by 2100.
As a result of these complex changes, food availability is projected to reduce over many parts of the country. In 2022, 4.3 million Kenyans required humanitarian assistance due to drought-related food emergencies, including the loss of livestock, meaning we are already witnessing the impacts of climate change.
On the other hand, the government, through its development blueprint, Vision 2030, has outlined a pathway to sustainable development aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. The County Climate Change Fund, piloted by the Adaptation Consortium and financed by the World Bank, is a mechanism that funds and coordinates climate change resilience-building projects that have been deemed the highest priority by vulnerable communities. The policy has been effectively implemented through, nationally coordinated and locally implemented projects such as in the management of water security.
Holders of indigenous and local knowledge are facing uncertainty under climate change especially those in the agriculture and food sector. However, the government of Kenya actively promotes research and development in science, technology, and innovation, integrating science and indigenous knowledge to create solutions.
Moreover, studies have shown that households can benefit economically by diversifying their livelihoods to adapt to changes in climate. For example, in some parts of Kenya pastoralists have ventured into agriculture and apiculture to supplement incomes and boost climate resilience.
As more than 70% of Kenya’s workforce is employed in climate-sensitive sectors, providing timely and user-centric climate information to a wider range of actors and stakeholders is critical. Early warning, early action, and response to climate hazards are crucial components in safeguarding lives, and livelihoods and in building long-term resilience.
