Extreme weather events in Africa are becoming increasingly common, striking areas already grappling with scarcity and insecurity. Local populations in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa feel the effects of climate change, but new research shows only indirect links to violent extremism.
The research project carried out by the Institute for Security Studies concluded that climate change does not directly lead to more terrorism. Still, factors associated with climate change appear to be a catalyst for localized conflicts, mainly driven by disruptions in agricultural production patterns and resource scarcity. These local conflicts offer fertile ground for the establishment of terror groups.
According to the United Nations, the climate crisis impacts human security in several ways, including intensified competition over land and water. Diminishing arable land and unpredictable water sources have exacerbated tensions between farming and herding communities in many places, including central Mali.
Average temperatures in the Sahel rose by 0.6°C to 0.8°C between 1970 and 2010, and long-term projections point to an increase of between 3°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century. The International Crisis Group modelling shows that temperature increases of as little as half a degree could, in some contexts, lead to a 10-20 per cent increase in the risk of violence.
Erratic weather has already contributed to conflicts across the Horn, from Somalia to Kenya and South Sudan, a clear demonstration of climate change’s impact as a threat multiplier, exacerbating insecurity and existing tensions.
All three countries in the Sahel face a proliferation and expansion of armed groups, including terror groups like Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin and Islamic State in the Sahel, and various rebel and self-defence groups. Elsewhere, the Al Shabaab has Somalia in its grip.
The research by ISS revealed that climate change sparks localized intercommunal conflict, triggered by disrupted agricultural production patterns and natural resource scarcity, which causes groups and communities to compete for access and control of resources.
The findings highlight the need for an integrated approach to combating climate change and insecurity. The intermediary factors through which climate change ultimately contributes to terrorism must be targeted, as well as the way these factors interact and reinforce each other.
For instance, in Africa’s Sahel region, where livelihoods have been threatened by rapidly rising temperatures, droughts and floods, a Great Green Wall of vegetation to counter desertification has restored almost 18 million hectares of degraded land and is aiming to restore 100 million hectares, sequester 250 million tonnes of carbon, and create 10 million jobs by 2030.
The study further emphasizes the need to strengthen the production potential of agricultural and pastoral economies in these regions of Africa by integrating innovative and resilient technical solutions to the adverse effects of climate change.
Additionally, improving local and institutional mechanisms for managing resources and community tensions is vital to reducing the scope for terrorist groups to exploit vulnerabilities.
According to Daouda Ngom, Minister of Environment and Ecological Transition for Senegal, the solutions are within reach.
“What is needed now is the will to act decisively and unlock the continent’s unparalleled natural resource potential to build a future where prosperity and sustainability go hand in hand,” he says.
