Climate Finance Stalemate: Uncertainty Looms Ahead of COP29

Parties to the United Nations climate negotiations have concluded their final technical meeting ahead of November’s COP29 climate summit in Baku without significant progress on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance.

Similarly, the Ad Hoc Work Programme ended without consensus on the size of the financial goal or how it would meet the needs of developing countries. Iskander Erzini Vernoit, Director at the IMAL Initiative for Climate & Development, expressed concern that after three years of negotiations, the goal remains undecided, largely due to delays by developed countries.

Vernoit added that this is a crucial moment, as many issues are being held up by the unwillingness of developed countries to engage on key points, such as the amount of finance needed.

This increases the risk that a new finance goal will not be established at COP29, despite its priority on the agenda. After three years of discussions, key issues remain unresolved due to the lack of constructive input from developed nations. Rebecca Thissen, Global Advocacy Lead for CAN International, emphasized that climate finance is about responsibility and justice, not charity. She warned that without adequate funding and international support, climate action plans will not be strong enough to address the crisis effectively.

Civil society organizations expressed disappointment at the lack of preparation from developed country delegations. The absence of a clear outcome leaves developing countries uncertain as they draft their national climate plans (NDCs), which depend on climate finance to achieve their goals.

John Nordbo, Senior Climate Adviser at CARE, called the talks “a gigantic disgrace” because rich countries have refused to include targets for loss and damage in the new finance goal.

“After last year’s COP, where everyone celebrated the new Loss and Damage Fund, it is now clear that developed nations are unwilling to contribute serious funding. This is deeply disappointing and irresponsible,” Nordbo stated.

Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries are required to provide financial support to help developing nations achieve the 1.5°C target. However, during the negotiations, developed countries pushed to impose financial contributions on developing countries, avoiding their fair share of responsibility.

Liane Schalatek, Associate Director of the Heinrich Böll Foundation Washington, criticized this move, stating that it undermines their obligations as historical polluters, especially as developing countries continue to suffer disproportionately from climate impacts.

Civil society representatives condemned the focus on private finance by developed nations, saying it downplays their obligations. Mariana Paoli, Global Advocacy Lead at Christian Aid, remarked: “It is shameful how developed countries have undermined these finance negotiations. With less than two months until COP29, they should be increasing their ambition and providing their fair share of public finance through grants. A weak finance outcome at COP29 would be their fault and devastating for communities in the Global South.”

In a setback following COP28’s agreement to establish a Loss and Damage Fund, developed countries refused to include financing for loss and damage within the scope of the NCQG during this round of talks. This raises concerns about the effectiveness of the fund as it leaves the most vulnerable communities more desperate and helpless.

Bertha Argueta, Senior Advisor for Climate Finance and Development at Germanwatch expressed concern that after almost three years of dialogue, no agreement has been reached on key aspects of the NCQG.

“There has been no progress on the quantum of finance, and developing countries have no assurance that sufficient public funding will be available, particularly for adaptation and loss and damage,” Argueta noted.

With the talks now concluded, civil society groups are calling on developed countries to come to COP29 ready to make meaningful commitments on climate finance. The credibility of the Paris Agreement and trust between nations depend on substantial progress in Baku.

Jeremy Anderson, Director of Just Transition at the International Transport Workers’ Federation, said: “It’s crunch time for climate finance. The Global North needs to deliver. A just transition requires massive public investment, workforce development, and social protection, with human rights and workers’ rights at the core of the NCQG.”

Key expectations include a commitment to provide substantial public support for developing countries, ambitious emissions reductions, adaptation measures, and solutions to address the losses and damages caused by ongoing climate impacts.

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