New research from Oil Change International, 350.org, MENA FEM Movement, and Observatório do Clima reveals that the COP Troika nations—UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil, representing the previous, current, and next COP presidencies—plan to expand oil and gas production by 32% by 2035. This expansion directly threatens the climate targets they have pledged to uphold.

It’s evident that the Global North countries, such as the United States, remain the largest drivers of oil and gas expansion and bear the responsibility to lead a fossil fuel phaseout, the Troika countries also must set a strong example.

These nations chose to host key climate talks and have repeatedly committed to 1.5°C-aligned Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), urging others to do the same.

According to Shady Khalil, Global Policy Senior Strategist at Oil Change International, the COP Troika was created to foster collaboration and ambition in support of the 1.5°C target.

“The science is clear—fossil fuel expansion cannot continue if we are to meet this goal. By pursuing massive fossil fuel projects, the Troika risks undermining the very target they are tasked with safeguarding.” Khalil emphasized that while the Global North must phase out fossil fuels first, the Troika’s contradictory actions threaten to erode global trust and slow climate progress. “They now face a choice: honor science by leading a just fossil fuel phaseout or risk a future marked by environmental collapse,” he stated.

Projections show Brazil’s oil and gas production will increase by 36%, the UAE by 34%, and Azerbaijan by 14% by 2035—the same year that the NDCs due next year will end.

To keep warming within the 1.5°C limit, fossil fuel production must decline globally by 55% by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency. Despite leading the COP28 agreement to phase out fossil fuels, the UAE has approved more new oil and gas projects than any other country since December 2023, including one planned to operate until 2100—well past the global 2050 phaseout deadline. Brazil, despite calls by President Lula for stronger climate action, ranks third in new oil and gas approvals for 2024.

Ilan Zugman, Latin America Director at 350.org, highlighted Brazil’s pivotal role stating that fossil fuels cannot meet the ambition required to limit warming to 1.5°C. For Brazil to lead in the global energy transition, its updated NDC must commit to ending new fossil fuel projects, phasing out existing ones, and providing resources to triple renewable energy capacity.

Zugman emphasized the importance of ensuring renewable energy access, especially solar power, for vulnerable communities. “As the future COP30 host and a G20 leader, Brazil is in a prime position to set this precedent,” he added.

A Troubling Disparity Between Commitments and Actions

At COP28, all nations committed to a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels. The COP Troika, ahead of COP29, also pledged to submit 1.5°C-aligned climate plans. However, their ongoing expansion of fossil fuels undermines these commitments.

Shereen Talaat, Founder and Director of the MENA FEM Movement, pointed out, that the expansion of fossil fuels by Troika nations hinders the 1.5°C climate target.

Revealing that given the Global North’s historical responsibility in causing this crisis, these countries not only need to halt new projects but also establish clear, equitable phase-out plans. This crisis demands immediate action, and the Troika countries should spearhead the transition to renewable energy.

Talaat warned that failing to curb fossil fuel expansion jeopardizes the credibility of the Troika nations and risks the planet’s future. “If they fail to act, they undermine both their credibility and the future of our planet,” she concluded.

Global North Must Lead, but Action is Needed Everywhere

While the Troika’s plans are concerning, the largest long-term expansion of oil and gas remains within the Global North. Previous Oil Change International research indicates that five Global North countries—the U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway, and the UK—are set to contribute around 50% of carbon pollution from new oil and gas developments through 2050.

These countries must not only end new fossil fuel projects and accelerate the phaseout of existing production but also provide grant-based funding to the Global South to facilitate a just energy transition. Without decisive action from these wealthier nations, a fair and equitable phaseout of fossil fuels globally could face insurmountable obstacles.

Claudio Angelo, Head of International Policy at Observatório do Clima, likened the race to maintain fossil fuel production by COP Troika nations to a dangerous game: “Every major fossil fuel producer is gambling on being the last seller standing, risking either planetary disaster or stranded assets. While major emitters like the U.S., Norway, and Australia must phase out first, the Troika should embody their commitment to 1.5°C by stopping expansion now.” Angelo criticized the Troika’s current trajectory as an example of “greenwashing rather than genuine climate action.”

Urgent Climate Finance Target Needed at COP29

The upcoming COP29 climate talks in Baku will be critical to advancing the COP28 decision on fossil fuel phaseout, particularly through the establishment of a strong New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance.

Experts suggest a target of at least $1 trillion per year, including a subgoal of $300 billion annually for mitigation, as essential for supporting the adoption of NDCs that immediately end fossil fuel expansion. Rich countries have the resources to mobilize over $5 trillion annually for climate action, including through eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, taxing major polluters, and reforming inequitable global financial rules.

Azerbaijan, as COP29 president, holds a critical role in securing this ambitious climate finance goal, aligning with the Troika’s responsibility to set precedents for truly 1.5°C-compatible NDCs.