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Between August 12 and 19, 2025, much of northern East Africa is expected to experience exceptional rainfall, particularly across Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and South Sudan.

The heaviest downpours, exceeding 200mm, are expected in central and northern Ethiopia, parts of central South Sudan, western Kenya, Sudan’s Darfur region, and western Eritrea.

Moderate rainfall, ranging from 50 to 200mm, will fall over central to southern Sudan, most of South Sudan, Uganda, central to western Kenya, central to western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.

In comparison, lighter showers below 50mm are likely in central to northern Sudan, parts of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, southeastern South Sudan, and several areas in Tanzania.

Rainfall will be above average in central to western Kenya, Uganda, much of Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, Darfur, parts of Rwanda, and southern Tanzania.

However, some pockets in eastern, southern, and central Sudan, the Ethiopian highlands, and western South Sudan will see less rain than usual.

Flooding is a concern for flood-prone zones in northern and northeastern Ethiopia, central-eastern and southwestern Sudan, central South Sudan, and western Eritrea considering the downpours anticipated.

Temperatures during this period will vary sharply. Highs above 32°C are expected in northern Sudan, the Red Sea coastal belt, northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and northwestern Somalia.

Moderate to high temperatures, between 20°C and 32°C, will dominate Somalia, eastern and southeastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, and most of Tanzania.

Milder conditions, below 20°C, will occur in Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, and the Rift Valley highlands of Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia.

Compared to seasonal norms, most of Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi will be warmer than usual, while cooler conditions are expected in southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, and isolated pockets across Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

Heat stress risks will be elevated in northern Sudan, the Red Sea coast, Ethiopia’s Afar region, and coastal Somalia.