The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is expected to experience a mixed climate outlook, with significant variations in rainfall and temperature patterns across the region. Based on the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC), the forecast for 23rd to 30th July indicates a likelihood of mixed wetter than normal conditions and high temperatures in other regions.
In the coming period, above-average rainfall is forecast in several key areas, particularly the Darfur region of Sudan, south-western Ethiopia, and eastern South Sudan.
Parts of central and northern Ethiopia, along with southwestern Sudan, are likely to receive heavy rainfall exceeding 200 mm.
Moderate rainfall, ranging between 50–200mm, is anticipated across most parts of South Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, northern Uganda, western Kenya, southern Sudan, and western Eritrea.
Light rainfall, under 50mm, is projected for Djibouti, central to northern Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central Uganda, north-western Kenya, and coastal areas of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.
A notable increase in rainfall beyond seasonal norms is also expected over central to eastern South Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, south-western and eastern Sudan, northern Uganda, and central and north-western Kenya.
However, below-average rainfall is likely in southern and eastern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, parts of western Eritrea, Djibouti, central Uganda, and segments of western Kenya.
Rainfall surpassing the 90th percentile, among the highest levels historically recorded, is expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, south-western and south-eastern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.
This raises the risk of localized flooding in flood-prone zones within western Sudan, eastern South Sudan, and parts of central Ethiopia.
In terms of temperature, much of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) will experience warmer-than-usual conditions. Extremely high temperatures above 32°C are forecast for northern Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal north-western Somalia, and central to southern Eritrea.
Moderate to high temperatures between 20–32°C will cover most of Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, and both western and eastern Tanzania.
Milder conditions, with temperatures below 20°C, are expected in central parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, as well as in southern Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi.
While much of the region will see elevated heat, a pocket of cooler-than-average conditions is forecast in the cross-border areas of eastern South Sudan and south-western Ethiopia.
The Greater Horn of Africa significantly heightened levels of heat stress are likely in northern Sudan, along the Red Sea coast, and in Ethiopia’s Afar region, warranting close monitoring and early preparedness measures.
