Climate change adaptation usually requires strong institutions to adopt policies and implement projects. However, conflict affects the implementation of long-term projects in affected areas. Moreover, climate change is exacerbating instability by weakening institutions, displacing communities, and increasing tensions over available food and water.
According to analysis from the Peace Research Institute Oslo, 59 conflicts were recorded in 2023, the highest number since the end of the Second World War. Consequently, climate funds need to learn how to keep projects running when conflict breaks out by being flexible and working closely with communities.
New research from the Adaptation Fund provides insights and firsthand experience of successful projects operating within fragile states and conflict-affected countries. The fund has allocated $1.2 billion to 180 projects worldwide, some of which are situated in regions prone to conflict. Certain initiatives are based in war-torn countries like Mali, while others operate in areas where sudden outbreaks of violence are a constant risk.
Additionally, some projects are located in particularly fragile environments, such as West Africa’s Volta Basin, which faces extreme vulnerability to floods and droughts. Researchers emphasize the importance of rapid response and adaptability in these challenging settings.
The study identifies key strategies for enhancing project success in conflict zones, including strengthening institutions, promoting local ownership of funds, maintaining flexibility in climate financing, fostering strong partnerships, and ensuring rigorous monitoring.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Climate Science Report published in 2022, there is increasing evidence linking increased temperatures and drought to conflict risk in Africa.
Mikko Ollikainen, head of the Adaptation Fund, commented last year that conflict-affected countries are “among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and their needs for external assistance are high”.
He added that the fund’s research “reinforces the importance of strengthening institutions in fragile settings to deliver climate finance effectively, and building strong partnerships between governments, civil society, and the private sector to ensure proper funding”.
Climate Resilience in Mali
One case study that demonstrates these complexities is a climate adaptation program in Mali aimed to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable communities in Mopti and Timbuktu, including the Faguibine system zone. The initiative focused on three key areas: improving water management, supporting climate-smart livelihoods, and building local adaptation capacity.
Efforts to enhance water control measures helped improve accessibility and management, while climate-smart agriculture, fisheries, and forestry interventions increased food security. More than 400 staff from local institutions received training on climate adaptation, strengthening their ability to respond to extreme weather events. Additionally, national policies were updated to integrate climate resilience strategies.
However, the project faced significant challenges due to ongoing insecurity, particularly in Timbuktu, where organized crime and terrorist attacks frequently disrupted activities. Infrastructure was destroyed, and suppliers hesitated to deliver essential goods. The COVID-19 pandemic further hampered interactions and slowed progress.
To adapt, the project collaborated with the UN Stabilization Mission (MINUSMA), regional governors, and local officials to ensure the continuity of activities in high-risk areas. It also worked closely with the 11 municipalities of Timbuktu to manage security concerns. Where insecurity made direct implementation difficult, the project shifted its focus to strengthening institutions and training local actors to sustain adaptation measures.
Despite the challenges, the initiative successfully introduced climate-resilient water management and agricultural practices, demonstrating how adaptation efforts can continue in fragile states. The program helped improve long-term stability in a region where climate change and conflict are deeply interconnected by maintaining flexibility, building strong partnerships, and ensuring community engagement.
Speaking at a COP29 event on adaptation in conflict areas co-organized by the Adaptation Fund and the Global Environment Facility, Srilata Kammila, head of climate change adaptation at the United Nations Development Programme, said working in fragile states is complex for a host of reasons.
Not only are institutions weaker when implementing projects over the long term, but there is also often discord between communities and the government. “The people in these situations have been affected by a lack of trust in the government and other entities coming from outside. Building that trust and engaging communities becomes a critical part and entry point of designing adaptation projects,” said Kammila.
