There is a high likelihood of wetter-than-usual conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa during the July to September season. However, a few areas, particularly parts of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Uganda, are expected to experience drier-than-average conditions in July.

Western Kenya, much of Ethiopia, eastern Uganda, southern and north-western Somalia, and large parts of South Sudan and Sudan are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall.

In contrast, parts of southern and south-eastern Sudan, central Ethiopia, north-western Uganda, and some areas in southern Somalia are likely to experience drier-than-usual conditions.

Temperature projections for the same period indicate warmer-than-average conditions across northern Sudan, most of Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern and southern Somalia, much of Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

At the same time, cooler-than-normal conditions are expected in central to southern Sudan, western Eritrea, southern and north-eastern South Sudan, northern and south-western Uganda, north-western Kenya, and western Tanzania.

Overall, in the Greater Horn of Africa, wetter-than-usual conditions are likely to prevail over the northern sector of the region, including western Kenya and much of Uganda. Isolated areas in South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, however, may experience less rainfall than usual.

Temperature-wise, warmer-than-average conditions are anticipated over a broad area including northern and southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

Meanwhile, normal to below-average temperatures are expected over parts of north-western Somalia, northern Ethiopia, southern Djibouti, Eritrea, central Sudan, and the border regions between Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan.

Regional Highlights:

• Most parts of the northern sector of the region, as well as western Kenya and much of Uganda, are likely to receive wetter-than-normal rainfall.
• Isolated areas in South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia may experience drier-than-normal conditions.
• Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast across a wide area, including northern and southern Sudan, South Sudan, central to southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
• Normal to cooler-than-normal temperatures are likely in northwestern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, southern Djibouti, Eritrea, central Sudan, and cross-border areas between Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan.