Scenes of coffee farmers cutting down their plants have become common in Kenya in recent years. A preferred beverage for millions worldwide, coffee is now at the center of a transformation shaped by environmental crises, international tensions, and rising sustainability demands.

Global demand continues to grow with no signs of slowing. According to The Changing Coffee Landscape report, coffee prices have reached historic highs driven by climate shocks, logistical disruptions, and new trade policies.

Climate change, in particular, poses a severe threat to production. The study shows that more than 50% of land currently suitable for arabica could become inadequate by 2050, even under the most optimistic emissions scenarios, with the worst-case projecting losses of up to 59.5%.

Major coffee-producing nations like Brazil and Vietnam have felt these impacts directly. Coffee is a crop that depends on specific environmental conditions, average temperatures between 18°C and 21°C, high altitude, controlled humidity, and regular rainfall.

In 2022, Brazil lost much of its harvest due to prolonged droughts and frosts. Although there was a partial recovery in 2023, 2024 brought extreme rainfall and flooding.

Vietnam, meanwhile, has grappled with severe droughts and the abandonment of some crops for economic reasons, resulting in lower robusta production.

Beyond environmental pressures, geopolitics has also played a significant role in driving up coffee prices. The Statista report highlights several major global tensions affecting production and distribution.

The war in Ukraine has pushed fertilizer prices higher, as Russia is a major exporter of agricultural inputs used by coffee-producing countries. At the same time, Red Sea attacks by Houthi rebels have forced commercial vessels to divert shipping routes, increasing delivery times and shipping costs.

In August 2025, the United States imposed a 50% tariff on several Brazilian products, including coffee, partially slowing imports and creating uncertainty in the world’s largest coffee market.

These combined pressures have created inflationary effects on coffee, as higher logistical and operational costs are ultimately passed on to consumers.

Robusta, more climate-resistant and commonly used in instant coffee and ready-to-drink beverages, tripled in price between 2020 and 2024. Arabica, which dominates the specialty coffee segment, doubled in value during that period.

Yet despite record prices, demand has not declined. Since the 2012/2013 season, global coffee consumption has grown by more than 20%, with 5% of that growth occurring since the start of the pandemic.

For instance, Kenya’s coffee market broke new ground this year after prices at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange surged to an average of KSh 1,025.03 per kilo in September, the highest monthly level on record.

Faced with shrinking land suitable for Arabica cultivation, producers are left with two main options. They can shift crops to higher-altitude regions where temperatures are cooler, though this approach faces regulatory challenges, especially for countries exporting to the European market.

Alternatively, they may replace arabica with robusta, a variety better able to withstand heat and drought. However, robusta carries a lower perceived value among discerning consumers and is less common in the premium market.

Coffee prices could stabilize slightly if certain geopolitical tensions ease or if harvests rebound, but analysts agree the long-term outlook remains difficult.

As global demand rises, climate threats intensify, and new environmental regulations come into force, coffee is no longer simply a beverage; it has become a reflection of global pressures and the complex realities of modern consumption.

For Kenya, these global disruptions mirror the struggles seen at home, where farmers cutting down coffee trees reflect deep frustrations with falling profitability and mounting production challenges.

As climate uncertainty grows and international markets shift, the country’s once-reliable coffee sector faces mounting pressure to adapt.

Kenya’s place in the global coffee story is becoming increasingly complex: producers must navigate the same climate threats, geopolitical shocks, and regulatory changes shaping the rest of the world.

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