The Role of the Global Stocktake in Updated NDCs and the Urgency for Action

To understand the dissatisfaction and growing demands from climate justice advocates, activists, lobbying organizations, and some developing nations for tangible support and financing to implement Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), we must start with the Paris Agreement in 2015.

During this agreement, member states committed to creating national climate action plans outlining how they would reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These NDCs are critical indicators of efforts to meet the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Under the Paris Agreement, member states are required to update their NDCs every five years to inform the next round of climate action plans. However, earlier this year, controversy arose when most nations missed the February 10th deadline to submit their updated, more ambitious NDCs.

These updated national action plans are supposed to be informed by the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement, conducted at COP28 in Dubai, UAE. The GST is a process for countries and stakeholders to assess collective progress toward the goals of the Paris Agreement and identify areas where more action is needed.

The GST clearly stated that the world is not on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C and emphasized that the window for meaningful change is rapidly closing. However, it also outlined bold actions for governments and stakeholders to urgently take in this critical decade to keep the 1.5°C target within reach and protect lives and livelihoods.

Amid daily climate crises such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, and food insecurity lobbyists argue that current NDCs do not match the situation’s urgency. This sentiment is echoed by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which warns that greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 and decline by 43% by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The IPCC cautions that crossing the 1.5°C threshold will lead to more severe, frequent, and intensified climate impacts.

A significant mitigation gap exists, as current global emissions are not aligned to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, even when all climate action plans are considered. This gap is evident in the growing need for climate action, which far exceeds the available support and financing.

On the other hand, adaptation is crucial, as it plays a vital role in safeguarding the most vulnerable. Building resilience to climate shocks and taking anticipatory actions can reduce losses of livelihoods, lives, and property.

The GST, referred to as the “ambitious package,” outlines key actions and commitments that must be urgently and consistently implemented to put the world back on track. These strategies include:

• Setting global emission reduction targets.
• Transitioning to renewable energy by tripling its capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
• Moving away from fossil fuels and promoting low-emission technologies, sustainable behaviors, and nature-based solutions.

The package also emphasizes scaling up adaptation efforts, ensuring they are well-coordinated and cover all relevant sectors, such as agriculture, health, social protection, water, and ecosystems. Additionally, it highlights the need for increased financial support, capacity building, and technology transfer to achieve these ambitious commitments.