A cohort of civil society organizations has published an open letter outlining 10 tests for countries’ new climate plans, which could determine whether the 1.5°C threshold is maintained. The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are critical to upholding the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as they provide a collective framework for ensuring a just transition.
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, countries reached a diplomatic breakthrough, agreeing to “transition away from fossil fuels” and to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Earlier this week, heads of state reaffirmed their commitments by endorsing the Pact for the Future, reiterating the promises made at COP28.
The letter stresses the 2023 COP28 decision agreed to by all countries in Dubai that was crystal clear: ‘pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C.’ Whereby they decisively recognized that ‘the impacts of climate change will be much lower’ at the temperature increase of 1.5C.
According to Nama Chowdhary from 350.org, these updated NDCs will be among the most significant documents of this century, setting the course for the planet’s future. She emphasized that the NDCs are more than just emissions-reduction measures; they are foundational to resilient development, offering a roadmap for job creation, energy security, and economic innovation.
“Countries must show leadership by presenting detailed, ambitious, and transparent plans to meet the 1.5°C goal,” said Chowdhary.
As the urgency of the climate crisis intensifies, both national and global efforts need to match the scale of the challenge. With climate impacts already devastating communities worldwide, governments must deliver on their commitments. This is especially true for wealthier nations and fossil fuel producers, who bear the responsibility to lead and support developing countries in actualizing their nationally determined contributions.
The Global Stocktake analysis highlights the limited actions taken so far, given the severity of the climate crisis. In this third round of NDCs, Chowdhary stressed that the world’s richest nations must step up to the challenge.
“We cannot stay within the 1.5°C target without addressing the vast inequities in climate finance and technology access. Every country must submit an ambitious NDC that reflects the gravity of this moment. Climate leadership is about action, not rhetoric. These NDCs will either guide us toward a sustainable, livable future or lock us into catastrophic warming. The time to act is now—governments must rise to the challenge and submit NDCs that reflect the urgency of the climate crisis,” she added.
As countries develop their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), ten essential criteria will determine whether these plans meet the 1.5°C goal:
- Is there an explicit commitment to end fossil fuel expansion and foster a just economic transition?
Governments must adopt policies to cut both the consumption and production of fossil fuels, setting clear timelines and ambitious goals for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and redirecting funds toward social welfare and a clean, equitable energy transition. - Is there an ambitious, 1.5°C-aligned greenhouse gas reduction target?
A fair and equitable NDC that aligns with the global 1.5°C target and enables net-zero global emissions by 2050 is the minimum standard for collective action to limit catastrophic climate impacts and ensure a safe, livable future. - Does the NDC include economy-wide and sector-specific targets?
The COP28 decision (paragraph 39) emphasizes the importance of setting multi-level delivery plans to foster accountability and accelerate implementation across all sectors, including energy, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry, land use, and urban areas. - Does the plan include stronger actions to protect communities against climate impacts?
NDCs should incorporate clear objectives for adaptation and addressing loss and damage. As climate change intensifies, building resilience against dangerous climate impacts becomes increasingly crucial. - Is the plan aligned with the global goal to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency gains by 2030?
As outlined in the COP28 decision (paragraph 28), this is a critical benchmark. - Is the plan transparent, detailed, and free from deceptive metrics?
The NDC must list absolute emission cuts, as well as reductions and assumptions regarding land use, forestry, and CO2 removals, ensuring consistency with other national, sectoral, regional, and local development plans. - Are the targets backed by strong government policy?
NDC targets must be supported by robust government policies to ensure swift, effective implementation, with inclusive and participatory processes involving Indigenous Peoples, local communities, women, and youth. - Have governments committed to significantly scaling up climate finance?
Achieving the 1.5°C target requires a substantial increase in climate finance to support a just transition in lower-income countries. Wealthier nations must dramatically boost affordable, needs-based finance through the New Collective Quantified Goal at COP29 and ensure the continued delivery of $100 billion in climate finance through 2025. - Does the plan include measures to protect and restore ecosystems?
The NDC must address ecosystems—forests, mangroves, grasslands, mountains, and water habitats—and align with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030. Nature-based solutions should be integrated into both mitigation and adaptation strategies. - Does the NDC comprehensively address food systems?
Actions should target food loss reduction, repurposing harmful subsidies, promoting sustainable agriculture, and supporting farmers with sustainable land and water management practices. The largest agricultural emitters should also cut methane and nitrous oxide emissions while enhancing food security and benefiting local communities, including smallholder farmers.
