The scientific consensus is clear: we are severely lagging in achieving critical climate goals. A recent multi-agency report coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlights how climate change and extreme weather are not only hindering development but also jeopardizing human well-being and the planet’s health.
Greenhouse gas concentrations have reached unprecedented levels, fueling temperature increases projected to continue as gap to attaining climate goals widens. The “United in Science” report reveals a substantial gap between our climate ambitions and actual emission reductions. Current policies indicate a two-thirds probability of global warming exceeding 3°C by the end of the century.
Despite this stark reality, the report offers glimmers of hope. It emphasizes the significant strides made in natural and social sciences, technology, and innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML).
These advancements are deepening our understanding of the Earth system and can play a vital role in climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable development.
AI and ML have become transformative tools, especially in weather forecasting. They promise faster, cheaper, and more accessible weather prediction, particularly beneficial for lower-income countries with limited resources. Satellite technology and virtual reality are also opening new avenues for managing land and water more effectively.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the need for urgent and ambitious action to foster sustainability and mitigate risks. She warns that the choices we make today will determine whether we face future collapse or pave the way towards a more prosperous and resilient world.
Yet, as Saulo points out, science and technology alone, including AI, are insufficient to solve the global climate crisis. Collective action and diverse knowledge, including contributions from young people and early-career scientists, are essential.
The upcoming United Nations Summit of the Future offers a unique chance to reinvigorate global efforts toward achieving climate goals.
Human-induced climate change has led to widespread changes in the atmosphere, oceans, and ecosystems. The year 2023 was the hottest on record, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent.
Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, reaching 57.4 billion tons of CO2 equivalent, with surface concentrations of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide hitting new peaks.
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the projected increase in emissions by 2030 has fallen from 16% to 3%, showing some progress. However, to limit global warming to below 2°C—and ideally 1.5°C—by 2030, emissions need to be reduced by 28% and 42%, respectively. Under current policies, global warming is expected to reach 3°C by the century’s end. Even in the most optimistic scenario, where all national pledges are fulfilled, there is only a small chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
The next five years present a high probability of surpassing the 1.5°C threshold, with an 80% chance that global temperatures in at least one of these years will exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C. This underscores the urgency of both climate mitigation and adaptation efforts, yet many countries lack the necessary adaptation plans, and global financing for such initiatives has decreased since 2020.
The integration of AI and ML into weather forecasting has revolutionized the field. These tools can process data faster and more efficiently than traditional methods, making it easier for countries with limited resources to access accurate predictions. AI models show promise in predicting hazardous events like tropical cyclones and in long-term forecasting of climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña. However, challenges remain, including the need for better data and the development of governance systems to ensure AI serves the global public good.
Space-based Earth observation technologies have also made significant strides, offering critical insights for weather forecasting, climate prediction, and environmental monitoring. Public-private partnerships in this field are essential for harnessing these innovations. Yet, challenges like data standardization, accessibility, and the need for improved measurements of key climate variables persist, particularly in less-observed regions like the cryosphere.
Meanwhile, immersive technologies such as digital twins and virtual reality are showing promise in addressing the growing strain on water and land resources caused by climate change. These tools offer interactive solutions for water and land management, enabling stakeholders to simulate and predict flood risks, droughts, and land degradation hence a new faith in attaining climate goals. Despite their potential, these technologies face obstacles, including data limitations, insufficient funding, and the need for effective governance frameworks.
Tackling global challenges like climate change requires a transdisciplinary approach, integrating environmental, social, and cultural knowledge. Climate goals coupled with solutions cannot rely on science alone; they must include input from diverse actors, such as policymakers, practitioners, Indigenous communities, and civil society. Engaging these groups from the outset leads to a more holistic understanding of climate impacts and strengthens trust in institutions like National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
One of the most critical tools for safeguarding communities from climate-related disasters is the multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS). Countries with substantial MHEWS coverage experience significantly lower mortality rates from disasters than those without. Although progress has been made, with over half the world’s nations now having such systems, substantial gaps remain.
The “Early Warnings for All” initiative aims to protect everyone on the planet from hazardous weather, water, and climate events by 2027. Achieving this goal will require scaling up innovations in science and technology, such as AI and digital communication platforms, and ensuring that these advances are backed by adequate resources. Through coordinated global action, we can turn this ambitious vision into reality, saving lives and reducing the impact of climate disasters worldwide.
