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A mixed weather pattern is expected to unfold across the Greater Horn of Africa between April 14 and April 21, 2026, with enhanced rainfall forecast over southern Tanzania even as much of the region turns drier and warmer than usual.

The outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) points to a contrasting regional climate signal: localized heavy rains coincide with widespread rainfall deficits and rising temperatures, outlining increasing climate variability across eastern Africa.

Forecasts indicate moderate rainfall of between 50 and 200 millimeters over parts of coastal Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and areas stretching from north-western to southern and eastern Tanzania.

However, much of the region is expected to receive light rainfall of less than 50 millimeters, particularly across central to northern Tanzania, Kenya, South Sudan, southern Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan, and large parts of Somalia.

This uneven distribution reflects a weakening of widespread rainfall systems, with precipitation becoming more localized rather than regionally consistent.

Meteorologists note that 1 millimeter of rainfall is equivalent to one litre of water per square meter, highlighting the limited water input expected in areas projected to receive only light rainfall.

While most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, southern Tanzania and parts of western Tanzania are expected to record above-average precipitation.

Additional pockets of enhanced rainfall are projected in central Burundi and isolated areas of Kenya and Ethiopia, though these are not expected to significantly offset the broader regional dryness.

At the same time, widespread rainfall deficits are forecast across South Sudan, Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and central to northern Tanzania, raising concerns over soil moisture decline and early stress on rain-fed agriculture.

Despite the generally reduced rainfall outlook, exceptional rainfall events remain possible in localized areas.

ICPAC forecasts rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile over southern coastal Tanzania and isolated parts of northern Kenya, signaling the likelihood of intense downpours within otherwise drier conditions.

Such rainfall extremes can increase the risk of flash flooding, particularly in coastal zones and low-lying areas, even when overall seasonal rainfall totals remain low.

Rising Temperatures Across the Greater Horn of Africa Region

Alongside shifting rainfall patterns, temperatures are expected to remain elevated across much of the Greater Horn of Africa.

Temperatures exceeding 32°C are forecast over most parts of South Sudan, southern to south-eastern Sudan, western Eritrea, and the Afar region of Ethiopia.

Elsewhere, moderate to high temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C are expected across large parts of the region, while milder conditions below 20°C are likely in highland areas, including parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi.

The broader outlook points to warmer-than-average temperatures across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, reinforcing a trend of sustained regional warming.

Only isolated areas in Ethiopia and Kenya are expected to experience slightly cooler than normal conditions, offering limited relief from the prevailing heat.

Escalating Heat Stress Concerns

The combination of reduced rainfall and elevated temperatures is expected to drive increased heat stress across several parts of the region.

Parts of eastern South Sudan are forecast to experience heat stress levels within the “Danger” category, while the “Extreme Caution” category is expected in the western parts of South Sudan, Eastern Kenya and Tanzania, Southern to central Somalia, Coastal regions of Eritrea, and Southern to eastern Sudan.

These conditions heighten the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable populations and those engaged in outdoor labor.

A Region of Growing Climate Contrasts

The emerging pattern, characterized by localized heavy rainfall, widespread dryness, and rising temperatures, highlights the increasingly fragmented nature of seasonal weather across the Greater Horn of Africa.

While areas such as southern Tanzania may benefit from enhanced rainfall, much of the region faces reduced precipitation and intensifying heat, posing challenges for agriculture, water availability, and livelihoods.

As climate variability continues to shape regional weather systems, experts emphasize the need for close monitoring and adaptive planning to manage both short-term weather risks and longer-term climate impacts.