• Heavy rainfall (more than 200 mm) expected over a few regions in south-western Ethiopia and western South Sudan. 
• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, most parts of Uganda and western Kenya. 
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in southern Sudan, coastal regions of Somalia, Rwanda, northern Tanzania and western Kenya.  
• Dry conditions expected over central to northern Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, western and coastal Tanzania, eastern Burundi and central to northern parts of Somalia.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 litre of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

• More than usual rainfall is expected over most parts of South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia, northern Uganda, south-eastern Sudan, and parts of central to western Kenya.  
• Less than usual rainfall is expected in Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, coastal Tanzania, and northern and eastern Kenya.

Exceptional Rainfall 

• Heavy rainfall (exceeding the top 10% on record) expected in parts of southern and western South Sudan and western Ethiopia.  

Floods 

• Heavy Rainfall is likely to lead to flooding in the flood-prone areas.

Temperature 21 – 28 May 2024 

• High temperatures (above 32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, Djibouti, north-eastern Ethiopia, and parts of Eritrea and north-western Somalia. 
• Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania. 
• Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of central to southern Tanzania, central to western Kenya and central to southern Ethiopia.  

Temperature anomalies

• Warmer than usual temperatures predicted over most parts of the GHA. 
• Cooler than usual temperatures forecast over a few regions in north-eastern South Sudan, a few regions in western Ethiopia and other isolated regions over the GHA.

Heat stress

• Elevated levels of heat stress expected in most parts of Sudan, northern South Sudan, Eritrea, Afar region in Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.  

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Kwabe Ben Victor

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