Climate change poses significant threats to human well-being, security, and livelihoods as it causes migration of individuals in search of better livelihoods. According to the World Meteorological Organization, global temperatures have risen steadily since the 1980s, from 2015 to 2023 identified as the warmest on record. Alongside rising temperatures, climate change is causing an increase in extreme and adverse weather events such as sea-level rise, floods, hurricanes, heat waves, and droughts. These events are becoming more frequent and severe, with the Global South bearing the brunt of these adverse effects.
Escalating Climate Threats and Human Mobility
As climate threats intensify, there is a noticeable shift in patterns of human mobility, and the number of affected individuals is expected to grow exponentially in the coming decades. In 2020 alone, over 40.5 million people were forced to relocate, with 30.7 million directly impacted by natural hazards. Floods and storms caused migration of 14 million individuals each, with Asia and the Pacific, experiencing significant human displacement and damage to buildings and infrastructure.
South Asia is particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events, including river flooding, sea-level rise, and extreme temperatures. These impacts threaten food supplies, livestock, land, and crops, resulting in severe food crises that can trigger migration. In India, farms are destroyed annually by severe heatwaves and snowstorms. Similarly, torrential floods in Pakistan have displaced thousands and caused widespread property damage. In 2022, Pakistan experienced the world’s deadliest flood, affecting 33 million people, with 2.1 million losing their homes. Bangladesh’s Haor areas were also severely impacted by flash floods, affecting approximately 4.2 million people.
Given that many Global South countries heavily rely on agriculture and natural resources, rising temperatures, floods, and water scarcity are straining livelihoods and driving rural-to-urban migration. This form of climate migration contributes to urban sustainability challenges, including unplanned urbanization and the development of informal settlements in peri-urban areas.
Vulnerability in Africa
Despite contributing the least to greenhouse gas emissions, Africa remains a globally climate-vulnerable region. This vulnerability is heightened because most of the population relies on rainfed agricultural systems for their livelihoods. As these systems become increasingly unsustainable, people will be compelled to migrate. Models predict that by 2050, between 28.3 and 71.1 million people will be forced to migrate within the continent, gravitating towards urban informal settlements where safety and health risks are growing.
The potential for resource competition to escalate into violence and conflict is high in Africa. Furthermore, water scarcity can exacerbate ongoing conflicts and increase the vulnerability of people displaced by conflict in the region.
Adaptive Measures and Socioeconomic Hurdles
Adaptive measures to combat climate change and its role in triggering migration have been developed globally. However, comprehensive implementation in the Global South is often hindered by socioeconomic factors. Farmers in these regions, who heavily rely on agriculture, find the high cost of adaptation strategies prohibitive due to their low income and socioeconomic status. Consequently, migration becomes a personal adaptation strategy when staying in place is no longer viable. By 2050, climate change could displace 200 million people, either voluntarily or forcibly. However, the costs and resources required for migration mean that individuals and families with limited means might be unable to relocate, forcing them to face the impacts of climate change involuntarily.
Government and International Initiatives
Governments can help by relocating affected people to more habitable areas. However, such relocations require careful planning and resources and must include input from the affected populations to avoid loss of livelihood, cultural heritage, and social networks. Previous relocations have often resulted in poverty for the displaced, emphasizing the need for sustainable livelihood opportunities in new locations. Despite the challenges, developing countries struggle to implement these actions due to limited resources.
International initiatives such as the Task Force on Displacement, the Global Compact for Migration, the UN Network on Migration, the Kampala Convention, and the Cancun Adaptation Framework have highlighted the need to address climate-induced migration. These initiatives encourage countries to recognize migration due to climate change, plan relocations, and collaborate to mitigate associated challenges. Additionally, organizations like the International Organization for Migration advocate for integrating climate change policies with migration policies, developing tools to manage climate-induced migration, and supporting social protection measures to help those who choose to stay in their communities.
Effective Coordination and Long-Term Planning
Effective coordination of migration and relocation requires identifying at-risk localities and assessing potential relocation areas to ensure they can sustain increased populations. Collaboration between origin and destination countries is crucial for planning future climate-induced migration, benefiting both regions. Various conventions have aimed to protect migrants and displaced individuals through humanitarian assistance, planning, community engagement, and proper documentation. For instance, the Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Environment, and Climate Change (KMD) urges East African countries to enhance cooperation, build capacity, and secure multi-partner financing to address displacement caused by climate change.
Support from Global North and International Organizations
Given the limited capacity of Global South countries to address climate impacts and the insufficient support from developed nations, public-private partnerships, philanthropic donors, and international organizations must provide increased support to vulnerable populations. This includes those living in areas prone to sea-level rise, flooding, and drought, and those with limited financial and adaptive resources.
Long-term planning, effective shock absorption, rapid recovery strategies, and innovative adaptation solutions can enhance community resilience and mitigate the negative impacts of migration. Strengthening these capacities requires upgrading infrastructure, improving household economic resilience, enhancing resource efficiency, involving local communities in planning, and using smart solutions like early warning systems.
However, the Global South may face challenges in affording adaptation costs and accessing necessary technologies and skilled human resources. Therefore, cooperation with Global North countries, including financial support and technology transfer, is essential. Such partnerships can help achieve global goals, promote peace and justice, and address the security implications of large-scale migration. Donor and international organization assistance will also be crucial in these efforts.
