Rainfall, Temperature Predictions 27 Sept to 4 October

Wetter than usual conditions are expected across Somalia, Ethiopia, southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, and parts of Uganda with more rainfall. Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

Total rainfall 

  • Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) is expected over a few places in northern Somalia, western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan.
  • Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over most parts of Uganda, western Kenya, northern and western South Sudan, southern Sudan, most parts of Somalia and Ethiopia.
  • Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in coastal Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, coastal and eastern Kenya, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and central Sudan.
  • Dry conditions are expected over northern Sudan, western and southern Tanzania, and parts of northern and eastern Kenya.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter. 

Rainfall Anomalies 

  • Wetter than usual conditions are expected over Somalia, Ethiopia, southern Sudan, north-western South Sudan, central to north-western parts of Uganda, and parts of the Lake Victoria Basin areas in Uganda and Kenya.
  • Drier than usual conditions are expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, and isolated areas in Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.

Exceptional rainfall

  • Extremely heavy rainfall is expected in northern Somalia and isolated areas in Ethiopia.
  • Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in northern to southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, parts of north-western South Sudan, parts of southern Sudan, and western Uganda.


Mean Temperature

  • Hot temperatures (above 32 ℃) are expected over central to northern Sudan, coastal regions of Eritrea, the Afar region of Ethiopia, parts of Djibouti, and north-western coastal regions of Somalia.
  • Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over southern parts of Sudan, South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, and western and south-eastern Tanzania.
  • Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over central to southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, central parts of Tanzania, and a few regions over southwestern Uganda and western Rwanda.

Temperature anomalies

  • Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

Heat stress

The Afar region in Ethiopia and Eritrea are expected to have extreme levels of heat stress for the first three days of the forecast period. People are encouraged to keep hydrated during this period. 

Leave a reply