Africa contributes just 2–3% of global emissions. Yet its airlines are increasingly exposed to global decarbonization mandates, from Europe’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending requirements to the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).
At a high-level sustainability dialogue moderated by African Development Bank transport manager Marco Yamaguchi, aviation leaders debated whether Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) represents an industrial breakthrough or an expensive compliance burden for African carriers.
Fuel already accounts for nearly 40% of African airlines’ operational costs, compared to a global average of 25%. SAF remains significantly more expensive than conventional jet fuel, and infrastructure across much of the continent is largely absent. Yet Africa’s aviation growth projections are accelerating.
According to Boeing Africa Managing Director Henok Tefera Shawl, demand forecasts have risen sharply. “When I joined Boeing three years ago, we projected that Africa would need 1,000 aircraft in the next 20 years. Last year, we updated that to 1,100. This year, we updated it to 1,700 aircraft.”
The question, he said, is whether that growth can be sustainable and locally anchored.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Cost vs. Opportunity
For Shawl, the case for modernization is clear. “They’re fuel efficient. They emit less. They reduce noise. Additionally, they allow passengers to be transported more comfortably,” he said, noting Boeing’s commitment to making its fleet fully SAF-compatible. Although cost remains the central tension.
During the discussions, it became clear that SAF is very expensive for African operators. Considering that the fuel cost already represents 40% of operational costs, if at all African airlines have to catch up and buy SAF, it will be very expensive.
The airlines’ representatives and experts cautioned that without local production, Africa risks repeating familiar economic patterns. They agreeably shared in the conviction that Africa should not fall into the trap of exporting raw material and importing value addition, since the refining capacity has to be here.
The competitive pressure is evidenced by European mandates requiring airlines flying into the EU to comply with SAF blending rules or face penalties. What brings in a new twist is the revelation that major global carriers are pre-purchasing SAF supplies, tightening availability, and raising prices.
Feedstock Potential for SAF
If cost is today’s constraint, feedstock may be Africa’s strategic advantage. Kwame Bekoe, CEO of AfriSAF, argued that Africa’s agricultural waste streams could position the continent as a future SAF leader.
“Much of it is burnt, discarded, or left to decay, waste from sugar production, cocoa, coconut, cashew nuts,” he said. “The next wave of SAF scale-up will rely on ethanol-based fuels and agricultural waste gasification, areas where Africa has abundant potential.”
Bekoe emphasized the socioeconomic upside: “This is going to create economic opportunities, green jobs, energy independence, and tackle air pollution. We’re trying to position African airlines to be competitive and sustainable for the future.”
He also stressed the need for greater engagement with feedstock suppliers and energy producers. “Unless we unlock these challenges, SAF cannot scale in Africa.”
Policy and Infrastructure
Another aspect that came out strongly is how policy harmonization is emerging as a central lever. Frankline Omondi of the African Civil Aviation Commission highlighted Africa’s continental SAF strategy, aimed at accelerating production and deployment.
“SAF is a massive opportunity, more than it is a barrier to African socioeconomic development,” he said. Even though fragmentation, infrastructure gaps, and feedstock export risks remain challenges.
“No single country can economically produce SAF at scale alone. That is why regional approaches exist,” he noted, pointing to proposed feedstock aggregation centers and pilot production states such as Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
Chinga Mazhetese, ICAO ESAF Regional Officer, highlighted the opportunity lying in the carbon markets.
“In Africa, we have more than a million emissions units available. Yet for airlines to purchase these, countries need to issue letters of authorization in accordance with the UNFCCC.”
She warned that many states lack the technical capacity to develop bankable sustainability projects, where development finance institutions could intervene.
Financing and the Path Forward
Yamaguchi highlighted the African Development Bank’s broader role beyond transport. “We want to do something beyond transport,” he said, pointing to industrialization and agro-processing programs as potential enablers of a full SAF value chain, from feedstock to refinery to airport infrastructure.
Infrastructure remains stark. Outside a few facilities in South Africa, SAF storage, transport, and blending systems are largely absent. Still, panelists agreed that the stakes are rising. African aviation growth is outpacing global averages, and sustainability may soon become a competitive differentiator.
“Those who have the capability and capacity to produce SAF will have a competitive advantage,” said Bekoe.
Bekoe framed the broader choice facing Africa: “The land, the resources, the human capital, and the demand, all are here.”
What remains is coordinated policy, regional aggregation, and financing bold enough to match Africa’s aviation ambitions. Africa now has the chance to turn mandates into industrial opportunity, but only if policy, investment, and regional cooperation move at the pace of its aviation ambitions.
