Can the Continent Overcome the Challenges and pioneer the renewable energy transition?

As the effects of climate change become more apparent globally, the race toward renewable energy is accelerating. Even as the push for renewables gains momentum, Africa’s potential is notably underutilized.

According to the WMO, Africa has some of the highest solar potential globally, yet it accounts for only 2% of installed renewable energy capacity.

Despite this potential in solar, wind, and hydro, climate change is making them less predictable, begging the question of whether Africa can harness its renewable energy potential while mitigating climate risks.

The Scale of Africa’s Renewable Energy Potential

Investment in renewable energy is increasing across the continent, intending to mitigate the effects of climate change.  

Roberta Boscolo of the World Meteorological Organization says, “This is not just about climate mitigation. It is a development opportunity. Renewable energy can bring electricity to communities, drive industrial growth, and create jobs if the systems are designed right.”

According to the United Nations, the Sahara Desert alone could power the world multiple times over. Countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Africa have strong wind corridors, and major river systems across the continent (Nile, Congo, Zambezi) provide immense hydropower potential.

Kenya’s Lake Turkana Wind Power Project, the largest wind farm in Africa, has a capacity of 310 MW, supplying nearly 17% of Kenya’s electricity demand. Morocco’s Noor Solar Complex, one of the world’s largest concentrated solar power plants, has a total planned capacity of 582 MW, helping the country reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, the Grand Inga Dam Project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, still in its planning phase, aims to be the largest hydroelectric project in the world, with an expected capacity of 44,000 MW, potentially supplying power across multiple African nations.

Climate Risks Threatening Renewable Energy in Africa

Despite the race to renewable energy intensifying, climate change is posing a risk to the transition. Erratic rainfall and droughts are reducing dam output, significantly affecting hydropower.

“In Sudan and Namibia, hydropower output dropped by more than 50 percent due to unusually low rainfall,” says Hamid Bastani of WMO.

Moreover, rising temperatures are decreasing solar panel efficiency, and unpredictable wind patterns are reducing energy output in some regions.

However, Roberta Boscolo says, “We are seeing more days with high solar radiation, meaning solar power is becoming more efficient over time.”

Besides, the increase in extreme weather events like floods, heat waves, and cyclones are damaging renewable energy infrastructure. According to the United Nations Environment Programme’s report, rising sea levels and stronger storms pose growing risks to energy production facilities, including solar farms located near coastlines.

The Investment & Infrastructure Gap

The continent is plagued by a lack of data and forecasting capabilities. Many regions in the continent lack climate intelligence tools to predict and plan for renewable energy generation. This poses a huge risk to financial investment, with investors becoming hesitant despite Africa’s huge potential.

As a result, power storage and transmission infrastructure are underdeveloped, significantly limiting energy distribution. This calls for smart energy planning.

“When we design, when we build, when we project power generation infrastructure, we need to think about what the climate of the future will be, not what was the climate of the past,” says Roberta Boscolo.

Solutions & Adaptation Strategies

Developments and technological advancements are occurring globally to provide solutions and adaptation strategies to the ever-unpredictable weather patterns.

To adapt, experts are emphasizing a need to embrace climate intelligence, the integration of climate forecasts data and science into every level of energy planning.

In Chile, for instance, hydropower generation surged by as much as 80 per cent in November 2023, due to unusually high rainfall. While this increase was climate-driven, experts say advanced seasonal forecasting could help dam operators better anticipate such events in the future and manage reservoirs to store water more effectively.

Leveraging artificial intelligence, machine learning models trained on climate and energy data have eased the prediction of resource fluctuations.

“We now have forecasts that span from a few seconds ahead to several months,” Mr. Bastani says. “Each one has a specific application – from immediate grid balancing to long-term investment decisions.”

Adopting similar models can help operators across the continent to better anticipate fluctuations in wind or solar radiation. Moreover, it is crucial to combine solar, wind, and hydropower with energy storage to reduce reliance on one source.

Moreover, there is a need for stronger government incentives, public-private partnerships, and foreign investments to revamp the infrastructure. Decentralized energy solutions are already playing a role in addressing the energy. For instance, off-grid solar solutions like Kenya’s M-KOPA are bringing clean energy to rural areas at an affordable price.

“If we do not have a reliable electricity system, everything is going to collapse. We will need to have this climate intelligence when we think about how to change our energy systems and the reliability and the resilience of our energy system in the future,” says Roberta Boscolo, WMO.