Climate and politics are no longer just related; they are intricately fused. Understanding this blend is no longer just academic but a manifest reality.
Weather patterns are changing. There is less rain in some regions and floods in others, swinging between unbearable heat and biting chills. The above is unarguable as it stands in plain sight. What is of concern, however, is the political situation and what that means for Africa.
To give context and putting is loosely, the political here can be defined as the exchanges and outcomes that happen at global or local fora where representatives from government, business, civil society, or other power brokers convene.
At such platforms, key stakeholders decide and make commitments, binding and non-binding, on climate aspects that will influence the rollout of policy and strategic direction at the national and continental levels.
In Africa, what is often challenging is how it can be referenced and inferred to as a country in one context and a block in another. Beyond this, there is the sub-categorization where countries are grouped as developing or least developed (LDC), currently 22 and 32, respectively, according to the United Nations.
These categories directly influence how concessions and political influence are exercised at the different forums. The largest climate forum is the annual Conference of the Parties (COP). At the recent COP30, key outcomes included tripling adaptation finance by 2035, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) backed by a $6Bn fund, and the Baku to Belem roadmap targeting $1.3 Trillion annually for climate finance by 2035.
What this means operationally is that the developed nations become politically pressed to provide funding through resourceful mechanisms within their nation-states, such as diverting parts of their national budget or through development vehicles or assistance programmes.
For the developing and Least Developed, they would need to establish and update Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to unlock this adaptation finance. The design of these NDCs and NAP’s is where the political becomes visible.
Domestic trade-offs in the quest to meet the threshold for mitigation targets often place strain on the local environment. Governments essentially need to balance between national interest and global goals. The pressure to meet and conform to the criteria can often be interpreted as underhanded strategic control, thereby prying on state sovereignty.
For Africa to fully gain from the dialogues and outcomes of these fora, there is a need to act in concert and with relative predictability. COP31 will be held from 9-20 November 2026 in Antalya, Türkiye, and this requires targeted action. As Africa heads towards the Conference, it will be led by Dr. Antwi-Boasiako Amoah, Director of Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation at the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA).
Dr Amoah will chair the Africa Group of Negotiators (AGN), which is the vehicle that allows Africa to present a position that favours the continent, devoid of prioritising the granular concerns of economic or political clout that routinely fragment outcomes. What should not be forgotten is that AGN’s position is as technical as it is political.
The technical is evidence-based, whereas the political calls on the diplomacy to traverse the individual state complexities. The AGN Chair should leverage his country and regional experience and use that for the benefit of the continent.
What should not be ignored within his strategic outlook are the challenges of representing a continent wherein some countries enjoy membership in multilateral bodies outside the continent, thereby giving them access and influence. Success in this regard will in part be measured by managing to harmonize these complexities and deliver a united African position.
In the lead-up to the conference, the political strategy for the continent should be clear. Africa is an essential part of the climate discourse, and it should take its rightful position, evidenced by bold, unified positions and actions.
Kuda Bandama – Policy Analyst and Researcher
