As the April–June rainy season approaches, the East Africa region is set to receive a mix of rainy, drier, and heat extremes. In a delicate balance, the eastern Horn of Africa braces for drier-than-usual conditions while central and northwestern regions prepare for heavier downpours.

In the east, particularly across southeastern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya, the skies are expected to stay stubbornly clear, with rainfall likely falling short of the seasonal average.

However, the same factor is slightly different in the western regions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), with parts of western Uganda and South Sudan regions indicating a pattern of unusually dry spells that might affect the farmers and probably causative of heatwaves.

Based on the prediction by IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC), the farmers and pastoralists in these areas are therefore urged to prepare for challenging months ahead.

Intriguingly enough, the northwest region indicates a probable wetter season in the near period looked into. The forecast shows that western Kenya, eastern Uganda, much of South Sudan, and parts of southern Sudan can expect above-normal rainfall.

The prediction of above-normal rainfall is shelved for other parts of the region ranging from central to southwestern Ethiopia, within Rwanda, as well as Burundi and Tanzania, where saturated soils and potential flooding may become concerns.

In terms of temperatures, the forecast shows the ranges will follow a clear trend as most of the region is set to experience warmer-than-usual conditions. The ICPAC prediction further points out that a few areas, particularly in the South Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya regions, might see near-normal or slightly cooler temperatures.

As we approach April, it’s important to note that as the first month of the season, it will determine and set the tone of the weather patterns. The forecast also shows that Northwestern Kenya, western Ethiopia, eastern Uganda, and southern South Sudan should prepare for heavy rains, inclusive of Rwanda and Burundi, that may also experience wetter weather.

On the flip side, the East Africa parts of eastern Kenya, central and eastern Ethiopia, and parts of western Uganda, Rwanda, and northern Tanzania will likely face drier skies.

As for the heat, nearly the entire region will feel warmer days, with only central Somalia escaping the trend with near-average temperatures.