As Kenya transitions from an unusually hot January and February, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a cautionary advisory ahead of the long rainfall season. The department is urging citizens, particularly those in flood-prone regions, to prepare for potential heavy rainfall and temperature fluctuations.
On Sunday, the KMD warned of isolated storms and heavy rainfall events expected between March and May. These forecasts aim to help citizens anticipate and mitigate risks associated with severe weather, reducing potential dangers and losses.
According to the March 2025 monthly weather outlook released on February 28, rainfall is predicted to be near to above average in several regions, while other areas may experience below-average precipitation. The advisory highlights the likelihood of isolated heavy rainfall in Central Kenya, including Embu, Tharaka, and Kirinyaga, as well as parts of Uasin Gishu.
Additionally, rainfall is expected across Western Kenya, the Rift Valley, the Central Highlands (including Nairobi), the Lake Victoria Basin, and parts of the South-Eastern Lowlands, the Coast, and North-Eastern and North-Western regions.
Dr. David Gikungu, Director of the KMD, attributes the anticipated rainfall patterns to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large-scale tropical weather phenomenon that occurs every 30 to 60 days. The MJO influences global weather patterns, including tropical cyclones and monsoons, and is characterized by periods of increased rainfall and storms followed by drier, hotter conditions.
Dr. Gikungu notes that the MJO is expected to enter its second phase in mid-March, potentially triggering an earlier-than-expected onset of rains in some areas.
Indigenous Knowledge Reinforces Rainfall Scientific Predictions
In Kajiado County, Maa elders have also predicted heavy rainfall using traditional methods rooted in indigenous knowledge. Their approach involves slaughtering a goat and examining its intestines, liver, arteries, and veins.
According to the elders, blood-filled intestines signify heavy rainfall, while other natural signs, such as the appearance of specific flowers and stars, further confirm their predictions.
John Wuapari, a village elder, explained that their observations indicate heavy rainfall of up to 100mm from late March through May. This aligns with scientific forecasts, suggesting that rivers and tributaries will be replenished by near-to-above-average rainfall.
Benson Lubanga, Kajiado County’s Climate Change Manager, emphasized the convergence of indigenous knowledge and scientific predictions. “The forecasts from the goat intestines, star sightings, and scientific studies by the KMD and IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center are in unison, pointing to significant rainfall,” he stated.
Michael Semera, Kajiado County’s Minister of Environment, praised the integration of indigenous knowledge with modern science. He urged greater collaboration among stakeholders to enhance early preparedness for weather-related disasters.
“Such data empowers farmers to plan for water conservation, farming activities, and other critical measures,” Semera noted.
This alignment between scientific and indigenous forecasting methods emphasizes the value of combining traditional knowledge with modern technology to improve community resilience and disaster preparedness.
