Enhanced rainfall is expected across several parts of East Africa between May 6 and May 13, 2026, with Rwanda, Burundi, northern Uganda, and the southern regions of Ethiopia and Somalia forecast to receive above-normal precipitation even as much of the Greater Horn of Africa continues to experience warmer-than-average temperatures.
The latest outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) points to a weather pattern marked by localized heavy rainfall, flood risks, and persistent heat stress, reflecting the increasingly uneven nature of seasonal conditions across the region.
Forecasts indicate moderate rainfall ranging from 50 to 200 millimeters across most of Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, northern and eastern Uganda, and the southern regions of Ethiopia and Somalia.
Meanwhile, light rainfall of less than 50 millimeters is expected over most parts of Tanzania, Kenya, central to northern Somalia, south-eastern and central to northern Ethiopia, southern Uganda, and northern parts of South Sudan.
Meteorologists note that 1 millimeter of rainfall is equivalent to one litre of water per square meter, outlining the varying rainfall intensity expected across the region.
Rainfall anomaly forecasts indicate above-average rainfall across most parts of Rwanda and Burundi, as well as northern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, eastern and western Kenya, and parts of eastern and north-western Tanzania.
However, below-normal rainfall is expected over parts of central to northern Somalia, south-western Ethiopia, cross-border regions of Sudan and South Sudan, central to southern Uganda, and south-western Kenya.
The forecast highlights a fragmented rainfall pattern, where wetter-than-normal conditions in some regions coexist alongside localized rainfall deficits in neighboring areas.
Forecasters also warn of exceptionally heavy rainfall, with totals exceeding the 90th percentile expected across most parts of southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, parts of north-eastern Uganda, and northern Kenya.
The intense rainfall increases the likelihood of flooding incidents, particularly across southern and central-eastern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and parts of central-western Kenya.
Communities living in flood-prone and low-lying areas are encouraged to remain cautious as heavy downpours could trigger flash floods, waterlogging, and disruptions to transport and livelihoods.
Temperatures Remain High Across Much of the Region
Alongside the enhanced rainfall, temperatures are expected to remain moderately high across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
Temperatures exceeding 32°C are forecast over parts of southern Sudan and the Afar region of Ethiopia, while moderate to high temperatures between 20°C and 32°C are expected across much of the region.
Meanwhile, milder conditions below 20°C are likely over the highland areas across the Greater Horn, largely influenced by elevation and increased cloud cover.
The broader outlook points to warmer-than-usual temperatures across most parts of the region, continuing a trend of sustained heat across eastern Africa.
However, parts of central to northern Sudan and isolated areas across the Greater Horn may experience slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures, though these conditions are expected to remain limited.
Heat Stress Persists Across Vulnerable Areas
Despite the expected rainfall in several regions, heat stress remains a growing concern, particularly across arid and semi-arid zones.
Conditions within the “Extreme Caution” category are forecast across most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, Eastern and northern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, and the Afar region of Ethiopia.
These conditions heighten the risk of heat-related illnesses, especially among vulnerable populations and people involved in prolonged outdoor activities.
The latest forecast emphasizes the increasingly contrasting nature of weather patterns across the Greater Horn of Africa, with some regions facing enhanced rainfall and flood risks. In contrast, others continue to experience suppressed rainfall and persistent heat.
As climate variability intensifies across the region, experts continue to emphasize the importance of early warning systems, preparedness, and close monitoring to reduce the impacts of extreme weather on communities, agriculture, and infrastructure.
