The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is set to experience above-average rainfall across several countries alongside persistently warm conditions between 16 and 23 December 2025, according to regional climate forecasts, an outlook that presents both flood and heat-related risks across the region.
Forecasts indicate moderate rainfall ranging between 50 and 200 millimetres over parts of eastern Uganda, south-western Kenya, the Ethiopian highlands, Burundi, Rwanda, and most parts of Tanzania.
Meanwhile, light rainfall of less than 50 millimetres is expected across central to eastern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, central to north-eastern Ethiopia, the Red Sea coast, and parts of southern Somalia, potentially prolonging dry conditions in these areas.
Rainfall anomalies raise flood concerns
Climate outlooks point to above-average rainfall over most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, western Kenya, eastern Uganda, and south-western Ethiopia, increasing the likelihood of localized flooding, particularly in flood-prone and urban areas.
At the same time, below-average rainfall is projected over parts of western and eastern Tanzania, highlighting the uneven nature of the rainfall distribution and its implications for water availability and agricultural planning.
Green shading across western Kenya, eastern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, south-western Ethiopia, and northern Tanzania indicates above-average rainfall, confirming a wetter-than-usual week for much of the central GHA.
The strongest positive anomalies are concentrated around the Lake Victoria basin, extending southwards into northern and central Tanzania, signalling sustained moisture and heightened flood potential.
Orange to red shading over parts of western and southern Tanzania reflects below-average rainfall, reinforcing the uneven distribution of precipitation across the region.
Persistently warm conditions Thrive in Greater Horn of Africa
Temperature forecasts for the period indicate moderate to high temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C across most parts of the GHA, reinforcing the trend of warmer-than-usual conditions over much of the region.
Milder temperatures, below 20°C, are expected across central to northern Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, Burundi, and western regions of Rwanda. However, cooler-than-usual conditions are mainly confined to parts of Sudan, offering limited regional relief.
Despite these variations, elevated heat stress levels are anticipated in eastern Kenya, Tanzania, South Sudan, and south-eastern Somalia, posing risks to human health, livestock, and labour productivity, particularly for communities already exposed to climate stressors.
The convergence of above-normal rainfall, exceptional precipitation events, and persistent heat stress underscores the growing importance of timely early warning systems and climate-informed decision-making.
As climate change continues to intensify weather extremes across the Greater Horn of Africa, ensuring that accurate and accessible climate information reaches communities remains central to strengthening regional preparedness and resilience.
