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Parts of East Africa are expected to experience enhanced rainfall between April 28 and May 5, 2026, with Rwanda, central to southern Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia emerging as key rainfall hotspots even as much of the Greater Horn of Africa faces uneven precipitation and persistent heat.

The latest outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) points to a mixed weather pattern, where enhanced rainfall in some regions coincides with below-normal conditions elsewhere, outlining the region’s growing climate variability.

Forecasts indicate moderate rainfall ranging between 50 and 200 millimeters across Rwanda, Burundi, most parts of Uganda, central to western Kenya, northern and eastern Tanzania, western Ethiopia, and northern to western South Sudan.

In contrast, light rainfall of less than 50 millimeters is expected across most of Tanzania, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Somalia, southern and central Ethiopia, north-western Eritrea, and southern Sudan.

Meteorologists note that 1 millimeter of rainfall equals one litre of water per square meter, highlighting the varying levels of water input expected across the region.

Rainfall anomalies suggest above-average precipitation across most parts of Rwanda and Burundi, extending into northern South Sudan and southern Sudan, as well as western Ethiopia and central to southern Kenya into northern Tanzania.

However, below-normal rainfall is expected across most parts of Somalia, Uganda, western Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and central to southern South Sudan, pointing to localized rainfall deficits within the broader seasonal pattern.

This uneven distribution reflects a fragmented yet enhanced rainfall system, where wet and dry conditions coexist across neighboring regions.

Forecasters warn of exceptionally heavy rainfall, with totals exceeding the 90th percentile expected across most parts of Rwanda, parts of central Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia.

These conditions increase the likelihood of flooding, particularly in Rwanda, central Kenya, and south-western Ethiopia, where communities in high-risk areas are urged to remain vigilant.

Flooding could disrupt transport networks, agriculture, and settlements, especially in low-lying and flood-prone zones.

Temperatures Remain Moderately High

Alongside the enhanced rainfall, temperatures are expected to remain moderately high across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.

Temperatures exceeding 32°C are forecast over parts of southern Sudan and the Afar region of Ethiopia, while moderate to high temperatures between 20°C and 32°C are expected across much of the region.

Meanwhile, milder conditions below 20°C are likely in highland areas, influenced by elevation and cloud cover associated with rainfall.

The outlook further indicates warmer-than-average temperatures across most parts of the region, continuing a broader trend of elevated heat.

However, parts of central to northern Sudan, northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and isolated areas across the Greater Horn may experience slightly cooler-than-normal conditions, though these are expected to remain limited in extent.

Heat Stress Expands Across Vulnerable Areas

Despite the rainfall in some regions, heat stress remains a growing concern across much of the Greater Horn of Africa.

Conditions within the “Extreme Caution” category are expected across Most parts of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti; eastern and northern Kenya; southern to central Somalia; and the Afar region of Ethiopia.

These conditions increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations and those engaged in outdoor activities.

The latest forecast highlights a region navigating contrasting weather extremes, with enhanced rainfall and flood risks in some areas occurring alongside suppressed rainfall and persistent heat in others.

While countries such as Rwanda and parts of Kenya and Ethiopia may benefit from increased rainfall, the uneven distribution underscores ongoing challenges for agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods.

As climate variability continues to shape weather patterns across East Africa, experts emphasize the need for continuous monitoring and preparedness to manage both immediate weather hazards and longer-term climate impacts.