As South Africa begins its term as G20 President, a report has found that emissions from fossil fuel extraction across these twenty nations have almost doubled since the Rio Summit in 1992 and have been responsible for 73% of global emissions over those three decades.

The analysis, entitled G20 Carbon Bombs: Threat of Fossil Fuel Reserves vs. Opportunity for a Just Transition, prepared by the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative with data from the Global Registry of Fossil Fuels found that the G20’s richer OECD members – the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, Germany, and Italy – are best placed to transition their economies away from fossil fuels first and fastest. 

All major fossil fuel-extracting economies in the G20 are in a better position to tackle the transition than they were three decades ago, as fossil fuel extraction as a share of economic activity across the G20 has decreased—particularly in China, Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, and India. 

Kumi Naidoo, President of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, pointed out that as much as the G20 nations returned to Rio, the site of the Earth Summit in 1992 it’s apparent that in those 32 years, these twenty countries have extracted fossil fuels that are responsible for 73% of global emissions. Kumi reveals that it’s evident many of the wealthiest countries in the group even have plans to massively expand their coal oil and gas extraction and exports in the years ahead.

“This fossil-fueled insanity is threatening everything we love. Our children will live in this future. Can you honestly look into their eyes and say you did everything in your power to stop it?” he asked.

The report outlines country-specific, equitable, 1.5ºC-aligned fossil fuel phase-out dates and the international financial support required to meet them as outlined in the Equitable Phase Out of Fossil Fuel Extraction report.

Tori Tsui, climate activist, writer, and Senior Advisor for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, emphasized that the report reveals a stark truth: the wealthiest G20 nations, responsible for the majority of global emissions over the past 30 years, continue to expand fossil fuel projects, failing both the planet and its people.

“A Fossil Fuel Treaty is crucial to hold these nations accountable, phase out extraction, and lead a global just transition that prioritizes the communities bearing the brunt of their inaction,” said Tori.

Even as South Africa begins its term as G20 President, there is a critical need to assess the impact this group of countries has on one of the greatest threats facing the world today. Fossil fuel reserves in G20 countries embed over a trillion tons of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gases—enough to blow not just the 1.5ºC but the 2ºC carbon budget.

Leaders of G20 nations gathered in Rio last month and issued a declaration reaffirming the outcome of COP28, which included a commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels”. Additionally, the Rio outcome makes just one mention of fossil fuels – reiterating the group’s commitment from 2009 to “phase-out and rationalize, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”. However, in 2022 alone, G20 members spent USD 1.4 trillion to support the fossil fuel industry.

According to Mitzi Jonelle Tan, climate activist for Fridays For Future Philippines, the report lays bare the hypocrisy of the wealthiest G20 nations proclaiming themselves ‘climate leaders’ while relentlessly expanding fossil fuel projects that have driven us closer to catastrophe over the past 30 years.

Further stating that their commitments to transition away from fossil fuels and phasing out subsidies ring hollow as they double down on extraction. For frontline communities, this isn’t just a betrayal—it’s a death sentence.

Mitzi emphasized that it’s time for G20 leaders to step up, abandon empty promises, and fulfill their responsibility: no more fossil fuel expansion, only genuine climate action rooted in justice.

The omission of specific further commitments to phase out fossil fuels is particularly concerning given oil and gas projects under development across the G20 embed 70 billion tons of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gases, two-thirds of the global total.

Key Findings:

• The G20’s richer OECD members – the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, Germany, and Italy – are best placed to transition their economies away from fossil fuels first and fastest. 
• Emissions from fossil fuel extraction in the G20 have almost doubled since 1992 and have been responsible for 73% of global emissions over those 32 years.
• Fossil fuel reserves in G20 countries embed over a trillion tons of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gases – enough to blow not just the 1.5ºC but the 2ºC carbon budget.
• The Business-as-Usual plans of G20 countries would release 850 billion tons by 2050, putting the world on track for 2.5ºC of warming or above.
• However, all major fossil fuel-extracting economies in the G20 are in a better situation to tackle the transition than they were three decades ago, as they have more income from other sectors and less reliance on fossil fuel extraction. Fossil fuel extraction as a share of economic activity across the G20 has decreased – particularly in China, Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, and India. 

Despite the dwindling carbon budget and their recent commitments to “transition away from fossil fuels”, many of the wealthiest G20 nations have considerable fossil fuel expansion plans despite claiming to be “climate leaders”.

This includes Australia, the world’s second-largest fossil fuel exporter with the largest pipeline of proposed coal export projects; Canada, which has tripled gas extraction over the past three decades; and the United States, which has more than a third of the expansion of global oil and gas production planned by mid-century.