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The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is heading into a week marked by uneven rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures, with much of the region expected to experience drier conditions, despite isolated pockets of intense rainfall.

Based on th forecasts for 26 November to 03 December 2025 by IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC), there’s an indication that most areas will remain under suppressed precipitation, even as localized regions brace for exceptional rainstorms.

Across Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, and southern Somalia, rainfall totals are expected to remain below seasonal averages. Southern Kenya and eastern Kenya are particularly likely to see deficits, continuing a pattern of uneven rainfall distribution that has persisted through recent weeks.

In contrast, south-western Uganda and Rwanda stand out as the only areas projected to receive more rainfall than usual, with western Rwanda expected to record levels exceeding the 90th percentile, an indicator of exceptional rainfall intensity.

Rainfall anomalies reinforce this divide: the central to south-western corridor of Uganda and Rwanda will be wetter than usual, while widespread deficits will dominate across eastern and southern Kenya, parts of Somalia, Tanzania, and much of Burundi.

With 1 mm of rainfall equating to 1 litre of water per square meter, the deficits may further strain soil moisture and water availability in already stressed zones.

Temperature patterns across the region add another layer of complexity. Moderate to high temperatures ranging between 20–32°C are forecast over much of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, and the eastern and northern counties of Kenya.

Cooler conditions as low as 20°C will be confined to north-western Sudan, central to northern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, northern Somalia, and parts of western Rwanda and Burundi.

Temperature anomalies show a region leaning firmly into warmth, with the question hanging out being, are we ready to deal with the situations of that much heat? Most western and northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa are expected to experience warmer-than-usual temperatures, amplifying the seasonal heat.

However, pockets of cooler-than-usual temperatures will emerge over north-eastern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, and central to northern Somalia, offering brief relief in otherwise warming conditions.

Heat stress, therefore, remains a key concern for the week, which would mean simple acts like tugging along a water bottle always quite impactful. Elevated levels are projected across South Sudan, southern Somalia, eastern and coastal Kenya, and the south-eastern and coastal regions of Tanzania, potentially affecting outdoor labour, livestock productivity, and health outcomes for vulnerable communities.

Overall, the coming week ascertains the increasingly complex weather patterns shaping the GHA, defined by localized extremes, broad temperature anomalies, and persistent rainfall deficits that continue to influence water resources, agriculture, and daily life across the region.