The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures, accompanied by uneven rainfall patterns, between 10 and 17 December 2025.
Based on the forecast by the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Centre (ICPAC), moderate rainfall ranging between 50 and 200 millimetres is expected across most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and central to western Tanzania.
In contrast, light rainfall of less than 50 millimetres is expected over much of Uganda, western and coastal Kenya, and eastern Tanzania, a distribution that may strain water availability in already dry zones.
Climate models point to above-average rainfall in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, south-western Uganda, central Tanzania, and south-western Kenya. In some of these areas, the likelihood of floods increases the risk of localized flooding, especially in low-lying and urban settings.
However, below-average rainfall is also projected over large parts of Tanzania and south-eastern Kenya, potentially worsening dry conditions and affecting agriculture and pastoral livelihoods.
Of particular concern is the forecast of exceptional rainfall, exceeding the 90th percentile, in parts of central Tanzania, which could heighten the risk of flash floods and infrastructure damage.
Rising temperatures and heat stress
Temperature forecasts across most of the GHA indicate an expected range of 20°C to 32°C, reinforcing the trend of warmer-than-usual conditions across the region.
Milder temperatures, below 20°C, are expected in northern Sudan, western Burundi and Rwanda, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, central to northern Ethiopia, and parts of northern Somalia.
Despite these pockets of relief, elevated heat stress levels are anticipated in eastern Kenya, Tanzania, South Sudan, and south-eastern Somalia.
Such conditions pose risks to human health, livestock, and productivity, particularly for outdoor workers and vulnerable populations.
The combination of heat stress, rainfall extremes, and persistent climate anomalies underscores the growing urgency for effective early warning systems and climate-informed planning, with timely forecasts playing a crucial role.
Most imperative, however, is ensuring this information reaches citizens and is shared widely to strengthen community preparedness across the Greater Horn of Africa. Building resilience will require collective effort as climate change continues to amplify weather extremes in the region.
