The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), in collaboration with Member States’ National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), and partners, has released the regional climate outlook for the March to May (MAM) 2026 rainfall season for the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA).
According to the outlook, there is a 45 percent probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall conditions over much of the Greater Horn of Africa. Areas expected to experience above-average rainfall include most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central to western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti.
A 40 percent probability of near-normal rainfall is forecast over western and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, most parts of Somalia, coastal Tanzania, and isolated areas of Uganda and Ethiopia.
Meanwhile, drier-than-normal conditions are expected over coastal parts of Kenya.
The outlook also indicates a normal to early onset of rains across most parts of the region, while a delayed onset is forecast over localized areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia.
“Despite the seasonal outlook, dry spells may still occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, and wet spells may occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or below-normal rainfall,” added Mr Edward Muriuki, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD).
Temperature Outlook for the GHA
In terms of temperature, warmer-than-average conditions are expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with higher probabilities over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya.
Cooler-than-average temperatures are forecast over parts of central to northern Ethiopia.
Mr Edward Muriuki, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), emphasized the importance of early warning services, stating: “Early warning services are critical in mitigating climate risks, providing timely information that enables governments, communities, and institutions to prepare for and respond effectively to climate-related hazards.”
He further emphasized the value of climate services, noting: “Climate services, when timely, credible, and user-driven, provide a powerful bridge between climate science and practical actions that protect lives, livelihoods, and support sustainable development.”
Call for Preparedness and Early Action In GHA
ICPAC urged Member States, as well as humanitarian and development partners, to actively use the ICPAC regional seasonal outlook alongside national and sub-national forecasts issued by NMHSs.
Member States were also encouraged to closely monitor updated seasonal forecasts, including sub-seasonal and short-range forecasts, to inform timely planning and decision-making.
They were further urged to scale up preparedness and anticipatory actions to minimize potential flood and drought impacts, protect lives and livelihoods, and safeguard critical infrastructure.
Dr Abdi Fidar, Director of ICPAC, stated: “GHACOF remains a critical regional platform for building consensus on climate risks and translating seasonal forecasts into early action that protects lives, livelihoods, and development across the Greater Horn of Africa.”
GHACOF 72 was convened as a hybrid event on 26 and 27 January 2026. The Forum brought together representatives from the 11 Member States of the Greater Horn of Africa, Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, as well as stakeholders from key sectors including agriculture and food security, livestock, water resources, health, disaster risk management, conflict, climate change, media, NGOs, humanitarian agencies, and development partners.
