Communities across parts of East Africa are being urged to prepare for heavy rainfall and elevated heat stress as new forecasts point to unusual weather patterns across the region from 10th to 17th September 2025.
According to the latest meteorological outlook by the ICPAC, northern South Sudan and northern Ethiopia are set to experience exceptionally high rainfall, with totals expected to exceed 200 millimeters. These levels of precipitation could place these areas in the top 10% of recorded rainfall events, increasing the risk of flooding and associated hazards.
Elsewhere, moderate rainfall between 50 and 200 mm is forecast for Uganda, South Sudan, southern Sudan, and central to western Ethiopia. Meanwhile, lighter rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected in central Sudan, north-eastern Ethiopia, Rwanda, and along the coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania.
Rainfall Anomalies Raising Concern
Unusually high rainfall is also expected in several other parts of the region. Areas including Rwanda, northern and western Uganda, central to northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and most of South Sudan are predicted to receive above-average precipitation.
Conversely, below-average rainfall is expected in southern Sudan, northern Somalia, and southern Ethiopia, potentially impacting water availability and crop production in those areas.
Flood Risk Looms
Authorities have raised concern over potential flooding, particularly in central and north-eastern South Sudan, north-western Ethiopia, and parts of central-eastern Sudan. Residents in flood-prone zones are advised to remain vigilant and follow updates from local disaster management agencies.
Rising Temperatures and Heat Stress
Alongside heavy rains, the region will also contend with rising temperatures. Central to northern Sudan, the Afar region in Ethiopia, and coastal parts of the Red Sea are expected to experience temperatures above 32°C.
Most of South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, and large parts of Kenya will see moderate to high temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C. Cooler conditions below 20°C will be limited to central Ethiopia, south-western Kenya, and parts of central Tanzania.
Unusual Heat Patterns Detected
Forecast models indicate warmer-than-usual temperatures across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, with cooler-than-average conditions likely only in eastern South Sudan.
Of growing concern is the prediction of elevated heat stress levels, particularly along the Red Sea coast, in the Afar region, and across much of Sudan. These conditions may have adverse effects on human health, livestock, and agricultural productivity.
Call for Preparedness
In reflection of the forecasts, meteorologists and disaster preparedness agencies are calling for early action and heightened awareness as the region braces for a combination of heavy rainfall and probable extreme heat.
Communities in vulnerable areas are encouraged to stay informed through local weather bulletins and take necessary precautions to mitigate potential risks.
