• Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) is expected over parts of southwestern Sudan, and western parts of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Kenya amongst countries in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) is expected over most parts of South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, central to southern Sudan, central to northern Uganda, central to northern Uganda, western Ethiopia, and Eritrea, central to southern Sudan, and parts of western Kenya.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is expected in parts of eastern and southern Tanzania, southern Uganda, coastal Kenya, southern Somalia, south-eastern Ethiopia, and northern Sudan.   

Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter.  

Rainfall Anomalies 

• More than usual rainfall is expected over most parts of Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Uganda, western Kenya, eastern South Sudan, central to eastern Sudan, and northern to southwestern Ethiopia.  
• Less than usual rainfall is expected over parts of western regions of South Sudan and south-western Sudan.  

Exceptional Rainfall 

• Rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record are expected in central to eastern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and most parts of Eritrea and Djibouti.

Floods 14 – 21 August 2024

• The expected very heavy rainfall over a few places in parts of central to eastern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern Ethiopia, and most parts of Eritrea and Djibouti is likely to lead to floods.
• Communities in the areas at risk are advised to exercise caution during this period.

Temperature 14 – 21 August 2024 

• High temperatures (above 32℃) are expected over northern Sudan, and parts of Eritrea, Djibouti, north-western Somalia, and north-eastern Ethiopia.    
• Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) are expected over most parts of South Sudan, southern to central Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, western and eastern Tanzania, and south-eastern Ethiopia.  
• Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) are expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, central to southern Tanzania, central to western Kenya, and most parts of western into south Ethiopia.

Temperature anomalies

• Warmer than usual temperatures are expected over most parts of the GHA. 
• Cooler than usual temperatures are expected over north-eastern Ethiopia and other regions spread across the GHA. 

Heat stress

• Elevated levels of heat stress are expected in northern Sudan and the Red Sea coastal regions of Sudan and Eritrea.