Global warming renowned is for the rise in global temperatures with 2024 predicted one of the hottest years on record. Heat-related deaths as a result of the heatwave, according to research by the Columbia Climate School, were recorded with 75% of the casualties among people under 35 — a large percentage of them ages 18 to 35, or the very group that one might expect to be most resistant to heat.
According to data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average temperature anomaly from January to September 2024 was approximately 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels, driven by high greenhouse gas emissions and an ongoing El Niño event. This makes 2024 part of the warmest decade ever recorded.
This spells a stark future for the global community, especially the global south. Africa faces a disproportionate burden from climate change and adaptation costs. The increase in temperatures has put a strain on the continent’s resources, whose average age as of 2024 is approximately 24.5 years. This reflects a very young demographic compared to other continents, largely due to high fertility rates and lower life expectancy.
“In sub-Saharan Africa, we have seen an increase in conflict, with six military coups in the last five years. This is not a coincidence: it has to do with the increasing pressure on resources caused by drought,” says Water, Peace, and Security (WPS) head Yasir Mohamed, Institute for Water Education Delft Associate Professor of Water Resources Management.
With a young population in Africa, the findings of the research by the Columbia Climate School reflect the precarious position of Africa’s future with increased global warming. “It’s a surprise. These are physiologically the most robust people in the population,” said study coauthor Jeffrey Shrader of the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy, an affiliate of Columbia University’s Climate School.
The study’s co-lead author, R. Daniel Bressler, a PhD candidate in Columbia’s Sustainable Development program says, “We project, as the climate warms, heat-related deaths are going to go up, and the young will suffer the most.”
According to the researchers, several factors contribute to certain trends. Young adults are often involved in labor-intensive activities like farming, construction, and manufacturing, which expose them to greater risks of dehydration and heatstroke, particularly in environments without air conditioning. Additionally, junior employees in such roles tend to have limited flexibility in their work arrangements and shoulder the bulk of physical tasks.
The researchers also highlight that young people are more likely to engage in high-intensity outdoor sports, further increasing their vulnerability. A separate study by Mexican researchers found that death certificates for working-age men more frequently listed extreme weather as a cause of death compared to other demographic groups.
The study conducted in Mexico has shown global implications of global warming, say the researchers. Mexico is a middle-income country; by share of the population under 35, it is about average, and some 15% of workers are employed in agriculture. By contrast, many poorer, hot countries, mainly in Africa and Asia, have much younger populations that work in manual labor at much higher percentages.
Thus, if Mexico is any indicator, heat-related mortality in those nations could be massive. A study published last year showed that farmworkers in many poor countries are already planting and harvesting amid increasingly oppressive heat and humidity.
