The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has issued a seasonal forecast indicating an increased likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions over the eastern parts of the Horn of Africa. The October to December (OND) 2024 period, which is critical for rainfall in the equatorial regions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), is particularly concerning.
The forecast predicts drought in the eastern parts of the region and wetter conditions in the west, underscoring the urgent need for coordinated action to address food insecurity and climate challenges. This forecast by ICPAC is a crucial step in preparing for the anticipated impacts on livelihoods from the unprecedented eventualities that might occur.
Dr. Eng. Festus K. Ng’eno, Principal Secretary of the State Department for Environment, emphasized the need to educate people about the risks of climate change and the importance of responding to early warnings. He further emphasized that it is essential to amplify this warning to ensure it reaches everyone, including the most vulnerable communities.
The OND 2024 seasonal climate outlook was developed using August 2024 initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centers, demonstrating ICPAC’s adoption of an objective seasonal forecasting method for the Greater Horn of Africa.
According to H.E. Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu, the Executive Secretary of IGAD, this prediction highlights the urgent need for coordinated preparedness efforts by national governments, development agencies, and humanitarian partners.
“Food insecurity continues to persist in the IGAD region, with 56.5 million people currently facing acute shortages. Disease outbreaks, exacerbated by severe climate events and conflicts, are adding to the strain,” said Dr. Workneh.
The forecast by ICPAC reveals that southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania are expected to experience below-normal rainfall, with the highest probabilities in southern Ethiopia and central and northern Somalia.
In contrast, western parts of the region, including southeastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, western and northwestern Kenya, northern Tanzania, southern Burundi, and parts of western Rwanda, are likely to experience above-normal rainfall. This could potentially support agricultural productivity, pasture generation, and water resource availability.
The temperature forecast indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average surface temperatures across the GHA, with eastern parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia expected to experience the highest probabilities.
Conversely, average to cooler-than-average temperatures are anticipated in cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, as well as localized areas in northern Tanzania and western Sudan.
Dr. Abdi Fidar, the Officer-in-Charge at ICPAC, emphasized the importance of early warning information, such as seasonal forecasts, for regional planning and informed decision-making. “This outlook is crucial for planning across the region. The predicted drier conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa, coupled with ongoing food insecurity, demand coordinated and timely action from relevant stakeholders to mitigate potential impacts.”
