The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a leading authority on regional climate services in Eastern Africa, has released its latest forecast for the period from 30th July to 6th August 2025.

The outlook reveals a mix of intense rainfall events, heat stress, and temperature anomalies across multiple countries, indicating an urgency in the need for increased preparedness and early warning awareness.

Elevated Rainfall Across Parts of Sudan and Ethiopia

More than usual rainfall is expected over parts of southern Sudan as well as central and western Ethiopia. ICPAC projects heavy rainfall amounts exceeding 200 mm in areas of southwestern and southern Sudan, alongside central Ethiopia, potentially affecting livelihoods and infrastructure.

Moderate rainfall, ranging between 50 and 200 mm, is forecast across most of South Sudan, northern Uganda, southern Sudan, central to western Ethiopia, and western Eritrea.

Light rainfall, defined as less than 50 mm, is expected in Djibouti, central to northern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern and southern Somalia, the central and coastal regions of Kenya, and southern and eastern Tanzania.

Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile among the highest 10% of recorded levels is anticipated in southern Sudan, western Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, and central to western South Sudan.

Such conditions heighten the risk of flooding, particularly in flood-prone zones of northeastern Ethiopia and western Sudan. Citizens in these regions are advised to remain alert and observe safety precautions.

At the same time, below-normal rainfall is likely in parts of central and western Uganda, eastern South Sudan, western Kenya, and southern Ethiopia, which may impact water availability and agriculture in those areas.

ICPAC Temperature Outlook Shows Heat Stress and Regional Variations

Temperature projections indicate that high temperatures above 32°C will affect parts of northern Sudan, the Afar region in Ethiopia, and areas along the Red Sea coast. These conditions are expected to result in elevated heat stress levels, which may pose health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Moderate to high temperatures, ranging between 20°C and 32°C, are expected across most of Somalia, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, eastern and northern Kenya, southern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and parts of eastern and western Tanzania.

Meanwhile, mild temperatures below 20°C are forecast over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania, and central Ethiopia, offering some thermal relief in contrast to the broader regional trend.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are projected across most parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, western Kenya, and northern Sudan.

In contrast, cooler-than-usual conditions are expected in southern Sudan, central Somalia, and a few isolated pockets across the region.

With the forecast indicating both excessive rainfall and high heat levels in different areas, this period calls for heightened community readiness and strategic planning, particularly for sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and public health.