Most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are expected to receive above-average rainfall during the March-May (MAM) 2026 season, even as temperatures across the region trend warmer than normal, a combination that experts warn could heighten both flood and heat-related risks.
Based on the latest IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC)regional climate outlook projects wetter-than-normal conditions over large swathes of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, and central to southern Kenya. Parts of northern, central, and southern Somalia, as well as northern Eritrea, are also expected to receive enhanced rainfall.
However, the outlook signals uneven distribution. Northern Kenya, central Ethiopia, and northern Somalia could record depressed rainfall during the season. Western and northern Kenya, Djibouti, and parts of Uganda and Somalia are also projected to experience normal to below-normal rainfall.
In March 2026 specifically, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected over most parts of Ethiopia, central to northern and eastern Kenya, western Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, Rwanda, and central to western and southern Tanzania.
Temperature projections for March show warmer-than-usual conditions across Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, northern and eastern Kenya, central to western South Sudan, large parts of Sudan, south-western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and most of Tanzania.
Some pockets of Sudan, eastern South Sudan, central and northern Ethiopia, most of Uganda, central to south-western Kenya, and northern Tanzania may experience near-normal to slightly cooler conditions.
Over the full March–May period, warmer-than-usual conditions are expected across most of the region, with only a few localized areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania likely to record normal to cooler-than-normal temperatures.
March-May Climate Change Context
The Greater Horn of Africa is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. In recent years, it has endured prolonged droughts followed by episodes of extreme flooding, a pattern scientists increasingly link to global warming.
Seasonal temperatures across most of the region are forecast to be warmer than usual. Climate scientists say the convergence of above-average rainfall and elevated temperatures reflects the region’s increasing climate variability.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), rising global temperatures are intensifying the hydrological cycle, leading to heavier rainfall events in some areas and more severe droughts in others. The East Africa region has experienced both extremes within short timeframes, disrupting agriculture, water systems, and livelihoods.
The pattern reveals a heightened variability, evidenced by communities that were recovering from drought are now being exposed to flood risks, while others may continue facing rainfall deficits. Adaptation planning must now account for both.
Recent El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole fluctuations have further amplified seasonal swings across the region. Warmer ocean temperatures can enhance moisture transport into East Africa, increasing rainfall intensity.
At the same time, elevated land temperatures contribute to evapotranspiration, accelerating moisture loss where rainfall is insufficient.
Agriculture and Livelihood Risks
For farmers across Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda, the March–May rains are critical for crop production. Above-average rainfall could boost yields in well-prepared areas, particularly where soils have retained moisture after previous seasons. However, excessive rainfall may trigger flash floods, soil erosion, and crop damage.
Pastoralist communities, especially in arid and semi-arid lands of northern Kenya and Somalia, face a more complex outlook. While improved pasture regeneration is possible in wetter zones, areas projected to receive depressed rainfall may struggle to recover from previous drought cycles.
Urban centres are also on alert, with cities such as Nairobi, Kampala, and Dar es Salaam having previously experienced flooding linked to heavy MAM rains, exposing infrastructure weaknesses and increasing the risk of waterborne diseases.
Call for Preparedness
Experts say early warning dissemination and localized advisories will be key to minimizing impacts. Governments across the region have been strengthening climate information services, but gaps remain in last-mile communication and community-level preparedness.
The outlook presents both opportunity and risk. Enhanced rainfall could replenish reservoirs, recharge groundwater, and improve food production in several areas. Yet without adequate drainage systems, land-use planning, and climate-smart agriculture practices, gains could be offset by flood damage and heat stress.
As the climate warms, seasonal forecasts are becoming increasingly vital for planning in agriculture, disaster risk reduction, and water management.
With March approaching, regional authorities and communities are being urged to prepare for a season defined not only by rain, but by rising heat, and the growing imprint of climate change across East Africa.
